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"America First" In Perspective

This week I presented ""America First" in Perspective," at the Levy Economics Institute's 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference.

Please use this link to download a PDF of the 12 presentation slides, including detailed notes.

• From a near-term, cyclical point of view, our analysis of the outlook is unambiguously positive.

• But when we expand our view to consider the next several years, because of structural factors, potential GDP growth is seriously constrained, converging to around 1% a year for the U.S.

G7 Labor Productivity & Labor Force Growth (%)

• And the really long view over centuries and millennia makes it painfully clear how extraordinary it was for the U.S. to achieve the economic dominance that it enjoyed several decades ago.

Share of World GDP (%), 1 - 2016 CE

Supporting Documents

  1. 1704_America_First_in_Perspective_ECRI__1_.pdf