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Rayno Biopharmaceuticals Portfolio YTD Performance And New Highs: PCYC,SGEN,REGN

|Includes: Pharmacyclics, Inc. (PCYC), REGN

Biotech Stocks Hit New Highs Unfazed By Shutdown

Biopharmaceutical stocks continued their blazing Q3 run today buoyed by assumptions that demand for pharmaceuticals will increase with 55 million new potential patients from "Obamacare" and that healthcare stocks are less affected by a weaker economy or a dysfunctional government. Moreover momentum is driven by M&A talk, new products and aggressive fund buying.

The IBB ($212.46) hit a new high today recovering from a $207 low last week. The Five Star Fidelity Select Biotechnology Fund (FBIOX $175.47) up 58% YTD is sure to levitate to new highs today at the close. Here are the Rayno Biopharma top 5 winners YTD, but almost all stocks are winners:

Astex (NASDAQ:ASTX) up 312% YTD after Otsuka bid of $886M.

Albany Molecular (NASDAQ:AMRI) up 243% YTD, a CRO value stock.

Pharmacyclics (NASDAQ:PCYC) up 239% YTD on promising pipeline and upgrades.

Seattle Genetics (NASDAQ:SGEN) up 189% , broad pipeline of antibody drug conjugates.

Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) up 182% YTD, revenues ramping on EYELEA backed up by broad pipeline.

Our recommendations have not changed since year end 2012: all portfolio stocks are strong holds but maintain a 10% cash position. Despite the upward trajectory and apparent frothiness of this bull market it is hard to call for a correction. If we see any trends that portends secular changes we hope to be the first to call it. Pricing will be key. Our only clue of excess thus far is a few mid-cap stocks with multi-$B market caps yet lacking clinical data support. Any ideas? For now, short biotech stocks at your peril.

 

 

2013   Price Original P Price Price Price % Ret Price Price %Ret  
Summary   Jy'10 Recomm   Dec'10 Apr'11 Dec'12 YTD'13 Jy1,'13 1-Oct YTD  
                         
Achillion ACHN   3/4/13 8.6       4.37 8.36 2.71 -68  
Alexion ALXN 50.45 2/2/09 35 80.55 100.8 95.4 2.26 95.86(sp) 118 24  
Alkermes ALKS   3/22/13 23     18.5 59.29 29.5 32.8 43  
Albany Mol AMRI   2/10/11 4.68 add 4.32 5.3 140.7 12.71 12.9 243  
Astex ASTX acquir 12/27/11 1.63     2.7 49.48 4.35 8.43 312  
Amgen AMGN 51.7 2/2/09 55 54.9 54 87.4 13.1 97.49 114 30.4  
Biogen BIIB 49.42 2/2/09 48.5 67.05 73.25 149 48.85 217.88 244.8 64  
                         
Cephalon CEPH 55.95 2/2/09 76.5 61.72 76.92 80.18 30 acquired      
                         
Cubist CBST 20.7 2/2/09 21.5 21.4 28.35 42.4 19.2 50.11 64.9 53  
Exelixis EXEL trade 9/2/10 3.3 8.21 11.12 4.58 1.97 4.66 5.86 28  
First Trust FBT 30.4 4/15/10 37.5 39.11 41.3 46 29.6 59.57 65.9 43  
Gilead GILD 34.9 2/2/09 51 36.24 42.81 72.7 40.67 51.65(sp) 62.9 73  
iShares ETF IBB 76.6 2/2/09 70.5 93.42 101.1 137.8 29.9 178.26 212.5 54  
SPDR Bio XBI           86.38 23.7 108.73 130.7 51  
Micromet MITI 6.28 2/2/09 4 8.12 5.46 10.91 272 acquired      
                         
ImmunoGen IMGN   12/22/11 12.4     12.5 34.8 17.19 17.26 37.6  
Optimer OPTR trade 2/18/11 11.8 add 13.8 9.2 60 14.5 12.65 37.5  
Pharmacycl PCYC   6/8/12 38.2     58 47.8 85.39 138.7 239  
Regeneron REGN 21.6 2/2/09 17.5 32.83 45.43 173 34.5 230.14 315 182  
Seattle Gen. SGEN 11.85 2/2/09 9.5 14.95 15.72 23.3 41 32.71 44.17 189  
ViroPharma VPHM 10.88 2/2/09 12 17.32 20.05 22.9 29.4 29.45 39 70  
                         
Paired Trades                      
                         
Pharmacycl PCYC long 6/8/12 38.2     60 51 85.39      
Medivation MDVN short 6/8/12 86.8   closed 50 7 52(split)      
              net 58        
Alkermes ALKS long 3/22/13 23     18.5 27 29.5      
Infinity INFI short 3/22/13 48.7   closed 35 18 16.6      
              net 45        
                         

Disclosure: I am long GILD.

Additional disclosure: Also long FBIOX Fidelity Biotechnology Fund