ETFs Rally Today: FBT Up 3.73%, IBB Up 3.28%, XBI Up 4.3%
NASDAQ Up 2.46%
--------Post of 9/1/15
Biotech Breakdown Now Connected to Global Growth Woes
No Place to Hide from China Contagion
Biotech stocks were previously immune to volatility from macro events in Europe and China. Now fears from a broad emerging market downturn has curbed risk across the board spilling into the healthcare sector. It is too early to tell whether there are other issues with the healthcare sector such as pricing, patent policies, generics, valuations, the FED etc. But the volatility even with blue chip growth stocks has unnerved investors.
Biotech stocks could not extend last week's rally from August lows and were down again today as we begin a new month. A red screen overwhelmed today and all biotech ETFs were down another 2.75-3% extending the 12% losses from August. The biotech sector peaked in mid-July with almost a "blow-off" top when the XBI hit the 273 level up over 45% YTD! The sector then fell into long slide through the summer until the brief rally last week. Many momentum stocks were pummeled as major funds took profits and a lackluster summer trading pattern set in. Here are some market trends in biotech stocks to consider as we position for a year-end rally:
- Healthcare stocks no longer lead the market and many large cap biopharmaceutical stocks are primary holdings of funds and ETFs. A weak healthcare sector does not bode well for biotech.
- Technicals are wavering near a "triple bottom" for 2015 and the healthcare ETF XLV Breaks 2015 Support .
- Speculation in small and mid-cap stocks has waned particularly emerging companies in "immuno-oncology" most of which are down today: BLUE CLDX JUNO KITE etc. There is only one green stock today in our universe Clovis Oncology (NASDAQ:CLVS).
- Large caps are no longer a safer play with Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB) down 12.67 % YTD and Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) down 6.6% YTD. Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD) is still up 8.7% YTD. Regeneron Pharma (NASDAQ:REGN) up 21% YTD.
- Mid-caps have been the best performers because of revenue growth and M&A potential: Clovis Oncology (CLVS), Incyte (NASDAQ:INCY) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX).
- As can be seen in the chart below all major Biotechnology ETFs took a big hit in August and overall performance in 2015 has trended together although the XBI remains the leader despite its more speculative small cap holdings. Add another 2.5-3% for losses on 9/1.
- Momentum is gone but institutions need to come back into the market.
|ETF Name||Symbol||Market||8/31||August||YTD Perf||2015|
|First Trust Arca NYSE||FBT||3.39||112.5||-10.7||10.2||64-132|
|Health Care SPDR||XLV||13.95||69.5||-7.9||3||57-77|
We will provide more color on detailed holdings and ETF strategies in our next update. ETFs outperformed mutual funds over the past year. A good investing approach is to hold one ETF and one Biotech Mutual Fund.
Volatility on a week to week basis has become difficult for any kind of trade except raising cash until a longer term trend becomes apparent. Dividend plays in large cap pharma might make sense but healthcare leadership in the market needs to assert itself.
Triple bottom for XBI:
Disclosure: I am/we are long FBIOX, XBI.