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What's New, 1/15/12

The following is posted in "Summary" in my LinkedIn profile.

What’s new: Greece troika Sun, PSI stalled til Wed. Earn Tues C,RIO,TSM,WFC. SPX 4Q earn +6%, slowest 9/09, cut 19% last 3 mth. China PMI Thu, RRR cut by 1/23. Euro summit 1/29. Last week: Spain/Italy s-t debt large rate decline helped by LTRO. France cut one notch, Italy, Spain two, EFSF next? Ger 4Q GDP slight decline. Better than expected (bte): consumer sentiment, China inflation, India ip. Wte: jobless claims, retail sales, JPM rev.

Indexes (1/13): SPX 1289 +2.5% ytd, at Oct high resistance, bulls upper hand > ~1260. Rotation from 2011 lead to lag, matl 7.9%,fncl 6.2,ind 5.1,disc 3.3,IT 2.7. Ytd, ACWI 1.5%,ACWX 0.4,EEM 3.6,BKF 5.7,China 2.1,EFA 0.1,Europe 0.9. Will pm's chase low volume ytd rally? Better US econ, low val vs Euro debt, EM 1H slowing; 4Q earn may decide.

Consensus forecast: US gdp 4Q 3.1,1Q 2.2,2Q 2.3. 2012 SPX ~1350, +7% 2011, eps $105, p/e 12.9x. 2012 global growth slow to ~3%, US 2.4% (2013 2.8), Europe -0.5% (weaker euro helps), China 8.5%. US gdp forecasts increasing, surprise indexes near peaks. Intl forecasts decreasing.

Consensus assumptions: 4 key, Europe muddles thru, more global easing, U.S. margins don't decline, oil not >> $100 on Iran. Second ECB LTRO bank refi 2/29 (1t euro?), more SMP country debt. Euro drifts lower. Greece likely defaults (in Mar?). French, Greek April elections leave intact 12/9 treaty deal. US decoupling, banks well capitalized, employ modest improve, consumer resilient, housing bottomed. QE3 < 50%. Romney candidate. AAPL uptrend, Facebook IPO. China soft lands, property prices now -5-15% don't collapse, further RRR cuts soon, leader change smooth. EM risks contained (CEE most, India). Metals remain weak.

Asset allocation issues: Falling VIX chance to hedge Euro downside tail risk? What weight fncl, mtrl, ind, em, hy? Low global valuations create upside tail risk? Slow global economy good for corporate credit risk? High correlations between/within asset classes starting to retreat?