The following is posted in "Summary" in my LinkedIn profile.
What’s new: Earn 1/18 GS; 1/19 BAC FCX GOOG IBM INTC MSFT MS UNH UNP. 1/17 France, Spain bills, EFSF sales okay. EFSF cut one notch, Greece PSI stalled 1/18, Spain bonds 1/19, EBA cap goals 1/20, Euro summit 1/30. China GDP 8.9%, forex rsrvs & home prices (4th mth) down, 1/19 PMI, RRR cut by 1/23. FOMC 1/25. Last week: Spain, Italy s-t auction success. France cut one notch, Italy, Spain two. Ger 4Q GDP slight decline. Beat: cons sentiment. Miss: jobless claims, retail sales.
Indexes (1/17): SPX 1294 +2.9% ytd, at Oct high resistance, bulls upper hand > ~1260. Rotation from 2011 lead to lag, mtrl 8.5%,indu 5.5,fncl 5.4,dscr 3.8,IT 3.4. Ytd, ACWI 2.4%,ACWX 1.4,EEM 5.5,BKF 8.4,China 4.5,EFA 1.3,Europe 3.5. Will pm's chase low volume ytd rally? Better US econ, low val vs Euro debt, EM 1H slowing. Italy 10-yr 6.5%. Oil 100.90.
Consensus forecasts: 4Q earn +6%, slowest 9/09, cut 19% last 3 mth. US gdp 4Q 3.1,1Q 2.2,2Q 2.3. 2012 SPX ~1350, +7% 2011, eps $105, p/e 12.9x. 2012 global growth slow to ~3%, US 2.4% (2013 2.8), Europe -0.5% (weaker euro helps), China 8.5%. US forecasts rise, surprise indexes peak, intl fall.
Consensus assumptions: Key, more deleveraging and easing, Europe muddles thru, US margins stay high, oil not >> $100, bank bailouts unhindered. ECB LTRO bank refi 2/29, more SMP. Euro drifts lower. 12/9 fiscal pact survives April French elec. Greece likely defaults (3/20 payment). US decoupling, banks well capitalized, employ improve, consumer resilient, housing bottomed. QE3 < 50%. Romney v Obama close. iPad Mar, FB May IPO. China soft lands, property prices now -5-15% don't collapse, further RRR cuts soon, leader change smooth. EM risks contained (CEE highest).
Asset allocation issues: Falling VIX chance to hedge Euro downside tail risk? What weight fncl, energy, ind, mtrl, em, hy? Low global valuations create upside tail risk? Slow global economy good for corporate credit risk? High correlations between/within asset classes starting to retreat?