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What's New, 1/18/12

The following is posted in "Summary" in my LinkedIn profile.

What’s new: Big banks loan growth. Earn 1/19 BAC FCX GOOG IBM INTC MSFT MS UNH UNP. 1/17 France, Spain bills, EFSF okay. EFSF cut one notch, Greece PSI 1/18, Spain bonds 1/19, EBA cap goals 1/20, Euro summit 1/30. China GDP 8.9%, forex rsrvs & home prices (4th mth) down, 1/19 PMI, RRR cut by 1/23. FOMC 1/25. Last wk: Spain, Italy s-t auction success. France cut one notch, Italy, Spain two. Ger 4Q GDP slight decline.

Indexes (1/18): ETFs 3 mths homebuilders +45%,rgnl bnks 28,biotech 20,SPY 9. SPX 1308 +4.0% ytd, bullish > ~1260. Rotation from 2011 lead to lag, ytd mtrl +9.7%,fncl 7.2,indu 6.5,dscr 5.4,IT 5.0. Ytd, ACWI 4.0%,ACWX 3.5,EEM 8.2,BKF 11.2,China 3.0,EFA 3.0,Europe 3.2. Will pm's chase rally? Better US econ, low val beating Euro debt, EM 1H slowing. Italy 10-yr 6.5%. Oil 101.50.

Consensus forecasts: 4Q earn +6%, slowest 9/09, cut 19% last 3 mth. US gdp 4Q 3.1,1Q 2.2,2Q 2.3. 2012 SPX ~1350, +7% 2011, eps $105, p/e 12.9x. 2012 global growth slow to ~3%, US 2.4% (2013 2.8), Europe -0.5% (weaker euro helps), China 8.5%. US forecasts rise, surprise indexes peak, intl fall.

Consensus assumptions: Both more deleveraging and easing, Europe muddles thru, US margins stay high, oil not >> $100, bank bailouts unhindered. ECB LTRO bank refi 2/29, more SMP. Euro drifts lower. 12/9 fiscal pact survives April French elec. Greece defaults (3/20 due) but contained. US decoupling, banks well capitalized, employ improve, consumer resilient, housing bottomed. QE3 < 50%. Romney v Obama close. iPad Mar, FB May IPO. China soft lands, property prices now -5-15% don't collapse, further RRR cuts soon, leader change smooth. EM risks contained (CEE highest).

Asset allocation issues: What weight em, cyclicals? Low global valuations create upside tail risk? Falling VIX chance to hedge Euro downside tail risk? Slow global economy good for corporate credit risk? High correlations between/within asset classes starting to retreat?