The following is posted in "Summary" in my LinkedIn profile.
What's new: AAPL big beat,rev +73%. Still no Grc PSI deal; Euro PMI beat,50.4 from 48.3,bottomed Oct;French bnk rtngs cut. Wed FOMC;Thu CAT;Fri 4Q GDP 3+%,China mkt closed wk. Last wk: US lstd home inven lowest 4/06; jobless clms 4wk ma 379k fall; big bnks loan grwth. China Jan flsh PMI 48.8,3rd mth <50;4Q GDP 8.9%;frx rsrvs & home prcs (4th mth) down.
Markets: QQQ at bull mkt high. Shrugging off Grc;Euro debt sales ok;Italy 10 yr down to 6.1%;US mm funds buy euro bnk paper. US 4Q earn so far good nuff,along with ECB LTRO,US econ beats,China soft land,mod value,to maintain big ytd rotate into "risk on" beta cyclcls. Will pm's chase low volu rally;em break rs dwntrend?
Indexes (1/24): SPX 1315 ytd +4.5%,mtrl +9.4,fncl 8.9,indu 6.8,IT 6.5,dscr 5.8. ACWI 5.1%,ACWX 5.0,EEM 10.3,BKF 12.8,China 5.4,EFA 4.7,Eur 5.0. ETF ytd EPI 21,TAN 19,SLV 15,EWZ 14,DBB 13,ITB 13,BKF 13,FXI 12,XBI 11,SMH 11,XHB 11,EEM 10. 10-yr US 2.06 Italy 6.1 euro 1.3033 oil 99.20 gold 1666.10.
Consensus frcsts: 4Q earn +6%, slowest 9/09, cut 19% last 3 mth. US gdp 4Q 3.1,1Q 2.2,2Q 2.3. 2012 SPX ~1350, +7% 2011, eps $105, p/e 12.9x. 2012 glbl grwth slow to ~3%, US 2.4% (2013 2.8), Eur -0.5% (weaker euro helps), China 8.5%. US frcsts rise, srprs indxs peak, intl fall.
Consensus assmptns: Glbl tbtf intact, more glbl easing, ECB LTRO/SMP monetization, Eur muddles thru, US mrgns stay high, oil not >> $100. Grc probably "orderly" default, 12/9 fscl pact survives, euro drifts lower. US decouple, banks well capitalized, corp fortress bs, employ imprv, cnsmr resilient, housing bottomed. QE3 < 50%. Rmny 64% win GOP. iPad Mar, FB May IPO. China soft lands, prprty prices now -5-15% don't collapse, further RRR cuts soon, ldrshp chng smooth. EM risks contained, CEE hghst.
Asset alloc: What wght em, cyclcls? Low glbl valu create upside risk? Falling VIX chance to hedge Euro downside risk? Slow glbl econ good for corp credit risk? High correlations between/within asset classes falling?