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What's New, 2/6/12

These daily market updates are also posted in "Summary" on my LinkedIn profile.

What's new: 2/7 Bernanke;2/8 CSCO;2/9 ECB. Grc PSI,austerity deals close not final. Lst wk: 243k new jobs,big beat,8.3% unemply,jblss 4wk ma 376k fall. Jan lite-vhcl 14.2 m saar big beat. FB filed. 10-yr Italy 5.6%,Spain 4.9,big drop. Jan glbl PMI 51.2 7-mth high,US ISM 54.1 smll miss,China PMI 50.5 smll beat. Itly debt sale ok;Spn unemploy 23%. Rmny wins NV,FL.

Mkts drivers: DIA,QQQ,XLK,XLY,XRT,IWF,JNK bull mkt hghs,EEM 15%. 2012 rotate "risk on" beta cyclcls when ECB's Dec LTRO decrsd bnk delevrging & fundng tail rsks,credit still stuck. US 4Q earn only 59% beat reducd est,good nuf,with Fed 0 rates longr;ECB 2/29 big LTRO;Euro debt sales ok;Itly rates down;US mm's buy euro bnk paper;China soft land;mod value. Watch: Grc PSI;Grc/Itly labr refrm;Port;EEM > 43;slwr glbl grwth;Shngh indx;Isrl-Iran.

Mkts assmptns: More glbl easing & delever;glbl tbtf intact;ECB LTRO/SMP monetiztn;Eur muddles thru;US mrgns stay high;oil not >> $100. Grc "orderly" dflt,3/20 paymnt;Port risk;12/9 fscl pact survives;euro drifts lwr. US decple;bnks well cap;corp strong bs;employ imprv;cnsmr rslnt;hsng bottm;QE3 < 50%. China soft lands;prprty prices now -5-15% don't collps;more RRR cuts soon;ldrshp chng smooth;Weibo impact. CEE hghst em risk.

Indexes (2/6): SPX 1344 ytd +6.9%,mtrl +13,fncl 13,IT 10,indu 10,dscr 8,QQQ 11,IWM 12,IWF 9,IWD 7,LQD 3,JNK 3. ACWI 8%,ACWX 9,EEM 15,BKF 18,China 5,EFA 8,Eur 8. ETF ytd TAN 34,EPI 32,XBI 24,VNM 22,RSX,EWZ 19,ITB 18. 10-yr US 1.90,Italy 5.6,euro 1.31,oil 97,gold 1724. Rmny GOP 87%,Obama Pres 58.

Mkts frcsts: Strtgsts,ecnmsts revising upwrd. 4Q earn +6%,slowest 9/09,cut 19% last 3 mth. US gdp 1Q 2.2,2Q 2.3. 2012 SPX ~1350,+7% 2011,eps $105,p/e 12.9x. 2012 glbl grwth slow to ~3%,US 2.4%,2013 2.8,Eur -0.5%,weaker euro helps,China 8.5%. US econ srprs indxs peaking.

Asset alloc: What wght em,fncls,cyclcls? Low glbl valu create upside risk? Falling VIX chance to hedge Euro dwnside risk? Slow glbl econ good for corp credit risk? Correlatns fall.