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What's New, 2/28/12

This daily market update was originally posted in "Summary" on my LinkedIn profile.

What's new: 2nd LTRO results 5:15 am 2/29. Non-def cap gds ex air -4.5%,miss. Cse-Shllr -4%,miss. Port 10-yr 12.8% rising. Grmn Prlmnt apprvs Grk bailout. G20 results IMF incrs unlkly b4 Apr. Brnanke 2/29. 3/1 PMI,ISM,EU summt. 3/5 China NPC (GDP trgt <8%?). SPX bull mkt hi,Shngh +3.5% wk. Oil 108. Grc bond swap offer begins. Jblss 4wk ma 359k,4-yr low. Grmn bus cnfdnc 7-mth hi,beat. EC 2012 euro GDP -0.3%. Feb Flash PMI Eurozn comp 49.7 miss,stablzd; China mfg 49.7,exprt ordrs 47.4. Grc130b euro 2nd aid deal;4Q GDP -7%,-16% from peak, 21% unemply. China:2nd 50bp RRR cut;new home prcs 4th mth dcrs. US: tax cut. SPX 4Q eps +6.6%,2.8 ex AAPL. Eurozn unemply 10.4%, 4Q GDP -1.3% saar, Grmn -0.7,Frnc 0.9 beat.

Indexes (2/27): SPX 1368 ytd +8.8%,IT +15,fncl 14,mtrl 12,indu 10,dscr 10,enrgy 8. QQQ 15,IWM 12,LQD 3,JNK 4. ACWI 10%,ACWX 11,EEM 15,BKF 20,AAXJ 14,China 11,ILF 13,EFA 11,Eur 9. VIX 18,10-yr US 1.92,Italy 5.4,euro 1.34,oil 108,gold 1769,GYX 420. Rmny GOP 77%, Obama Pres 61.

Mkts drivers: VIX < 20 hedge opprtnty? Glbl money easing key. SPX > 2012 consnsus ~1350,no pullback since 12/21 ECB LTRO. 2012 rotate "risk on" beta cyclcls. Bull mkt hi's by DIA,QQQ,JNK,AAPL. Stblzng grwth,infltn+valu =rising mkts. US profits slowing;1Q SPX earn +1%; 4Q 67% beat reducd est;mrgns flattened < 9%. Fed 0 rates longr;2/29 LTRO ~500 b euro;Euro debt sales ok;Itly rates down;China soft land;value. Watch: Itly/Spn labr refrm;Port;Spn dfcts;Isrl-Iran;Syria;Jpn sls tax;frclsr deal.

Mkts assmptns: More glbl easing & delever;glbl tbtf intact;ECB monetiztn;US mrgns stay high;oil not >> $100. ESM-ESF funded;Srkzy loses Apr;12/9 fscl pact survives;euro drifts lwr. QE3 likely despite better econ;US decpl;bnks well cap;corp strong bs;employ imprv;cnsmr rslnt;hsng bottm. China soft lands;prprty prices now -5-15% don't collps;more RRR cuts soon;ldrshp chng smooth. CEE hghst em risk. US 1Q 2.3,2Q 2.4. China 1Q 8.2%. 2012 glbl ~3%,US 2.4%,2013 2.8,Eur -0.5%,China 8.5%.

Left click on chart to enlarge.