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What's New, 3/10/12

This daily market update was originally posted in "Summary" on my LinkedIn profile.

What's new: 3/13 Fed. NFP 227k beat,8.3% unemply. China exports,new loans,money miss;CPI 3.2% beat;factry 11.4 miss;fai 21.5 beat;rtl 14.7 miss. Jblss 4wk ma 355k,same,4-yr low. Grc debt swap. ECB 1.0% unchg. 10-yr Itly 4.84%,Port 13.8. Grmn Jan ip 1.6% beat. New iPad LTE. Grmn Jan ordrs -2.7% miss. Brzl -0.75% cut;Jan ip -2.1%,miss. EZ PMI 49.3. China 2012 7.5% GDP trgt. Spn incrs 2012 dfct trgt 5.8%. Feb US ISM 52.4 miss;China PMI offcl 51.0 smll beat,HSBC 49.6. Rtlrs strng Feb sales. Jan cnsmr spnd flat 3rd mth. Japn capx 4.9% big beat,Korea exprts 23% beat. 530b euro LTRO. Jpn,Korea ind prod beat. Non-def cap x air -4.5%,miss. Cse-Shllr -4%,miss. Grmn bus cnfdnc 7-mth hi,beat. Grc130b euro aid;4Q GDP -7%,-16% peak, 21% unemply. China:2nd 50bp RRR cut;new home prcs 4th mth dcrs. SPX 4Q eps +6.7%,3.6 ex AAPL. EZ unemply 10.4%, 4Q GDP -1.3% saar.

Indexes (3/9): SPX 1371 ytd +9.0%,IT +16,fncl 14,dscr 12,mtrl 9,indu 9,enrgy 6. QQQ 16,IWM 11,LQD 3,JNK 4. ACWI 11%,ACWX 11,EEM 15,BKF 18,AAXJ 15,China 11,ILF 12,EFA 10,Eur 9. VIX 17,10-yr US 2.04,euro 1.31,oil 107,gold 1714,GYX 410. Rmny GOP 85%,Obama Pres 61.

Mkts drivers: Glbl easy money key,pos econ srprs. VIX <20 hedge? SPX 1st pullbck 12/21 ECB LTRO. Ytd risk on beta cyclcls. Bull hi's by SPX,QQQ,JNK. Stblzng grwth,infltn+valu =rising mkts. US profts slowng;1Q SPX earn est +1%; 4Q 67% beat reducd est;mrgns flattnd < 9%. Fed 0 rates longr;LTROs 1 t euro;2nd Grc deal;Itly rates dwn;China soft land. Watch: econ srprs;Itly/Spn labr refrm;Port;Spn dfcts;Srkzy;Hngry;Isrl-Iran;Syria;Jpn sls tax,M&A;frclsr deal.

Mkts assmptns: GDP grwth 2011/12/13:wrld 3.8/3.4/4.0;US 1.7/2.2/2.5;Eur 1.6/-0.3/0.9,China 9.2/8.4/8.6;BRICs 7.4/7.0/7.3. US 4Q 3.0;1Q 2.3;2Q 2.4. China 4Q 8.9;1Q 8.2. More glbl easing,tbtf intact;US mrgns high;oil not >> $100. Euro drfts lwr;12/9 fscl pact survives. QE3 ?;bnks well cap;corp strong bs;hsng bottm. China soft lnd;prprty prices now -5-15% don't collps;ldrshp chng smooth. CEE hghst em risk.