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What's New, 3/22/12

This daily market update was originally posted in "Summary" on my LinkedIn profile.

What's new: Jblss 4wk ma 355k,~4-yr low. Mar Flsh PMI, China 48.1 from 49.6,Euro 48.7 from 49.3,both miss. Jpn Feb trd srpls beat. 10-yr US 2.28%, Itly 5.10, Port 12.6 drop. Oil 106,pump 3.88. Exst hm sls -0.9%,sngl strts -10%,multi +21;bldr cnfdnc 6/07 hi. AAPL 605,div/buyback. China Feb hm prcs unchg. Itly Jan orders -7.4% weak. Fed,BOJ unchg,more pos. Bnk strss tsts,cptl return. Rtl sls 1.1%,meet. Spn 2012 dfct trgt 5.3%. NFP 227k beat. China exports,new loans,money miss;CPI 3.2% beat; factry 11.4 miss;fai 21.5 beat;rtl 14.7 miss. Grc debt swap. ECB 1.0% unchg. Brzl -0.75% cut. China 2012 7.5% GDP trgt. Feb US ISM 52.4 miss. Jan cnsmr spnd flat 3rd mth. Japn capx 4.9% big beat,Korea exprts 23% beat. 530b euro 2nd LTRO. Cap gd -4.5%,miss. Cse-Shllr -4%,miss. Grc 4Q GDP -7%,-16% peak. China:2nd 50bp RRR cut. EZ unemply 10.4%, 4Q GDP -1.3% saar.

Indexes (3/22): SPX 1393 ytd +10.8%,fncl 20,IT +20,dscr 14,indu 10,mtrl 9,enrgy 3. QQQ 20,IWM 11,LQD 1,JNK 4. ACWI 11%,ACWX 10,EEM 12,BKF 13,AAXJ 13,ILF 11,EFA 10,Erp 10,China 8,Jpn 20. VIX 15.1,euro 1.32,yen 82.8,gold 1648,GYX 405. Rmny GOP 93%,Obama Pres 60.

Mkts drivers: Glbl easy money key. US 10-yr syncs w eqty. Hedge VIX <16? M&A,LBOs next? Risk on beta cyclcls. Bull hi's by SPX,QQQ. Stblzng grwth&infltn+valu =rising mkts. 1Q SPX eps est -0.5%,rev +3.5%,mrgns fall;4Q eps +6.7%,3.6 ex AAPL,67% beat reducd est;mrgns flattnd < 9%. Fed 0 rates longr;LTROs 1 t euro;2nd Grc deal;Itly rates dwn;China soft land. Watch: China grwth;oil;econ srprs;Itly/Spn labr refrm;Port;Spn dfcts;Srkzy;Hngry;Iran;Syria;Jpn sls tax;frclsr deal;India.

Mkts assmptns: GDP grwth 2011/12/13:wrld 3.8/3.4/4.0;US 1.7/2.2/2.5;Eur 1.6/-0.3/0.9,China 9.2/8.4/8.6;BRICs 7.4/7.0/7.3. US 4Q 3.0;1Q 2.3;2Q 2.4. China 4Q 8.9;1Q 8.2. Tbtf intact;US mrgns high;oil not >> $100. Euro drfts lwr;12/9 fscl pact survives. QE3 ?;bnks well cap;corp strong bs;hsng bottm. China soft lnd;prprty prices -5-15% don't collps;ldrshp chng smooth. CEE hghst em risk.