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Market Commentary: SPX Today

Mar. 11, 2021 8:26 AM ETS&P 500 Index (SPX), SPYIVV, VOO, VFINX
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  • Expected Closing Range: 3873-3924 [3830-3954].
  • Market Outlook: Slightly Bullish with Caution.
  • VIX: Neutral.

Some positive signs are developing that the market is stabilizing. More investors are protecting their portfolios which is a big sea-change from late last week where that wasn't the case. That all lends support to the market averages against major declines with the notable exception of when that protection is monetized en masse, e.g. Thursday, March 4, 2021 causing some destabilization.

Against that backdrop, we remain in a bullish rate environment (bearish bonds). The bond picture creates some headwinds against the bullish thesis. Today's 30-year Treasury auction is worth keeping an eye on. Tech is especially unfriendly to higher interest rates, so the oft-leading laggard may continue to be the recent laggard.

Using recent history as a guide, VIX should be priced right around $25. However, with the market outlook as it is the VIX seems fairly priced where it is and I don't expect much upside or downside in the index.

Watch those 30-year yields!

Happy Trading! 

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are short VIX.

I am an active trader and may initiate a long or short position in any security mentioned at any time.

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