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PBR - Close Your Eyes And Buy

|Includes: Petrobras - Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PBR)

Petrobas is looking very ripe for a long term play at the moment, at around $6.10. Current yield for the common shares is ~7%, which may very well be suspended to preserve cash in 2015, but I should imagine will return on a longer term horizon and pay handsomely for buyers today.

The company is facing many problems right now, corruption at Lava Jato, oil price collapse, stalled capex spending, and potential negative cash flow in FY 2015. All which are figured in to the price of shares.

The thesis is that this company owns some very valuable assets, has large piles of cash and the backing of the Brazilian government, the corruption issues will make a more transparent less shady company going forward, and eventually oil production levels will drift towards equilibrium and a higher world price, all which should help PBR's share price immensely.

One should not rule out a share price dipping into the $4-$5 range. Momentum seems to suggest it.

Disclosure: The author is long PBR.