Greece: The time to move on was last week because it was over then

May 05, 2010 2:05 PM ET
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LKofEnglish's Blog
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Contributor Since 2009

Problems with the media vis a vis finance is nothing new. And remember: "It is not the critic that counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly, who errs and who comes short again and again because there is no effort without error or shortcoming but who does actually strive to do the deeds, who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement and who at worst should he fail at least fails while daring greatly so his place shall never be with those timid souls who know neither victory nor defeat." Theodore Roosevelt.

As should have been expected by even by the most novice of investment strategists and stated in my commentary based upon others far closer to the conflict than me  "the crisis" in Greece became a political event and the only numbers that mattered were "how many we could get out in the street" and not "structural deficits, bailouts and aid."  This is not to minimize in any way the significance of what is going on in Greece.  Indeed I think in general terms "Greece" is far more important to the USA now that it has collapsed into chaos than it was when it was orderly .  No longer however does this "Nation fomerly known as Greece" as I have called it for some time represent anything of significance to "the market place."  Clearly now if you are an investment strategist all eyes should be on Spain which is the second country "under attack" by the same forces that took down Greece.  It took 4 months for Greece to "come to this."  I think Spain will be lucky if it has 4 weeks.  I believe the negative implications for the North American marketplace to be disrupted by "events in Europe" are still vastly over-stated.  Having said that "events in Europe" as even grade school students should understand have a way of "involving Americans." Needless to say I am of school that "the USA should be proactive in its approach here."  This is not meant as some sort of political statement but stated such that you understand I am offering a particular and what I deem as far from unique point of view.   As the crisis unfolds I will offer further insights in hopes that those managing "OPM's" will gain the type of clarity from someone who while hopefully "uniquely stated" does not feel he is offering anything "unique" on "why things happen the way they do" too.  In short the goal is to keep at maximum-minimum "the surprise" of these things.

Disclosure: no positions

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