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8/2/2010 - THE VULCAN REPORT Review of DBA Commodity Softs ETF (DBA) as of Friday, July 30, 2010

|Includes: PowerShares DB Agriculture ETF (DBA)

 8/2/2010 - DBA - THE VULCAN REPORT Review of DBA Commodity Softs ETF (NYSEARCA:DBA) as of Friday, July 30, 2010

 
THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of DBA Commodity Softs ETF (DBA)
as of Friday, July 30, 2010


Today's Price Action


Change    0.4500 (1.76%) prices closed higher than they opened.  with strong Bids going into the close.This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened.  If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom.  If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area , the long white candle adds credibility to the support.  Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.


     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix


PulseScan:     30.76
Swing Vix:     29.75


The Market Pulse is positive since it is trading above its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed above the Swing Vix creating a UP Trend Channel as of    2 period(s) ago. The Swing Vix is above 29.  This is where it usually forms Resistance.  The Swing Vix usually forms Resistance before the underlying security.  
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  


*The last signal was a Over-Bought Sell  8 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix does not currently show any Failure Swings.The security price has set a new 14-period high while the Swing Vix has not.  This is a bearish divergence. Since the PulseScan leads the market 3-5 days out we will wait to see if downside pressure develops.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, DBA Commodity Softs ETF's price has increased 2.65% , and has ranged from a high of 25.9900 to a low of 25.0700.


     MOMENTUM


     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is VERY-BULLISH - Heavy Accumulation- The UpTrend is still entact with prices holding above trendline support at-  25.0250.


        TREND STRENGTH - WEAK - RANGE BOUND (Prices have ceased trending and have become consolidated at this time) The market has put in a short term top. This means that the bulls are liquidating long positions thus taking some profit off the table.,


TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Above it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. -  25.0250
The close is currently Above  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. -  24.5272 
The close is currently Above  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. -  25.2511 




INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE  25.9045
SUPPORT  25.6955


WEEKLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE  25.2000
SUPPORT  24.9200


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BULL MARKET UPTREND - (12-18mo) PRICE TARGET =  31.5500
Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at -  27.2000
Long term Trend Line support is currently at -  25.0250


BULL MARKET HYPER PARABOLIC CIRCUIT BREAKERS
BUBBLE PHASE 3 - (72mo+) (TULIP CRAZE CRASH IMMANENT) PRICE TARGET =  44.6000
BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (MARKET FRENZY BUYING) PRICE TARGET =  40.2500
BUBBLE PHASE I - (24-36mo) PRICE TARGET =  35.9000


VOLATILITY
On 7/30/2010, DBA Commodity Softs ETF closed   above the upper band by 7.2%.


This combined with the steep uptrend suggests that the upward trend in prices has a good chance of continuing.  However, a short-term pull-back inside the bands is likely.


     IN PLAY - (PANDORA'S LITTLE BLACK BOX)


LONG Signals :   


LONG POSITIONS FOR THIS SECURITY ARE NOT IN PLAY AT THIS TIME!


SHORT Signals :  


 SHORT POSITIONS FOR THIS SECURITY ARE NOT IN PLAY AT THIS TIME!
 
 
Risk Disclosure


General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.


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