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8/20/2010 - THE VULCAN REPORT Review of TLT - US Bonds 20yr+ ETF (TLT) as of Thursday, August 19, 2010

|Includes: iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

 Friday, August 20, 2010

8/20/2010 - TLT - THE VULCAN REPORT Review of TLT - US Bonds 20yr+ ETF (NYSEARCA:TLT) as of Thursday, August 19, 2010
 

THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of TLT - US Bonds 20yr+ ETF (TLT)
as of Thursday, August 19, 2010

Today's Price Action

Change    1.6300 (1.56%) prices closed higher than they opened.  with strong Bids going into the close.This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened.  If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom.  If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area , the long white candle adds credibility to the support.  Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.

     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix

PulseScan:     42.83
Swing Vix:     41.83

The Market Pulse is positive since it is trading above its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed above the Swing Vix creating a UP Trend Channel as of    8 period(s) ago. The Swing Vix is above 39.  This is where it usually tops.  The Swing Vix usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security.  
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  

*The last signal was a Over-Bought Sell 32 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix does not currently show any Failure Swings.The security price has set a new 14-period high while the Swing Vix has not.  This is a bearish divergence. Since the PulseScan leads the market 3-5 days out we will wait to see if downside pressure develops.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, TLT - US Bonds 20yr+ ETF's price has increased 6.45% , and has ranged from a high of 106.6100 to a low of 99.4700.

     MOMENTUM

     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is VERY-BULLISH - Heavy Accumulation- The UpTrend is still entact with prices holding above trendline support at-  96.9550.There is currently no trend reading at this time.

        TREND STRENGTH - STRONG - Bullish Trend,
There is currently no trend strenght reading at this time.

TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Above it's PulseWave Cycle TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. -  96.9550
The close is currently Above it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. -  95.8952
The close is currently Above  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. -  99.2928 
The close is currently Above  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 102.9738 


INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 106.1667
SUPPORT 105.0833

WEEKLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 100.6100
SUPPORT  98.5600

MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BULL MARKET UPTREND - (12-18mo) PRICE TARGET = 125.9200
Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at - 106.6100
Long term Trend Line support is currently at -  96.9550

BUBBLE PHASE 3 - (72mo+) (TULIP CRAZE CRASH IMMANENT) PRICE TARGET = 183.8500
BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (MARKET FRENZY BUYING) PRICE TARGET = 164.5400
BUBBLE PHASE I - (24-36mo) PRICE TARGET = 145.2300


VOLATILITY
On 8/19/2010, TLT - US Bonds 20yr+ ETF closed   above the upper band by 8.5%.



     IN PLAY - (PANDORA'S LITTLE BLACK BOX)

LONG Signals :   

         Bullish Momentum Strengthening (Phase I).     

       LONG ENTRY- 106.7085
   Profit Target 113.6833
   Stop Loss 104.5415


SHORT Signals :  

           WARNING - Inside Day / Bullish Replacement pull back from previous high (Possible Breakdown below)   

        SHORT ENTRY- 104.5415
   Profit Target  99.8933
   Stop Loss 106.7085
 

Risk Disclosure


General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.


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Posted by The Vulcan at 11:34 AM