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9/22/2010 - Gold vs SPY

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

 Wednesday, September 22, 2010

9/22/2010 - Gold vs SPY
 
THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of GLD - COMEX Gold FUTURES ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)
as of Tuesday, September 21, 2010


Today's Price Action


Change    1.1400 (0.91%) prices closed higher than they opened.  with strong Bids going into the close.This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened.  If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom.  If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area , the long white candle adds credibility to the support.  Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.


An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle's real body completely contains the previous black candle's real body).  The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend.  It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.


If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with GLD - COMEX Gold FUTURES ETF), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle's real body.
A piercing line occurred (which indicates that prices moved down on the previous bar, opened even lower, but then closed significantly higher).  This implies strength as the momentum appears to be shifting from the bears to the bulls.  Note that the higher the close of the white candle (relative to the black candle), the more bullish the Piercing Line pattern.






     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix


PulseScan:     40.95
Swing Vix:     39.32


The Market Pulse is positive since it is trading above its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed above the Swing Vix creating a UP Trend Channel as of    3 period(s) ago. The Swing Vix is above 39.  This is where it usually tops.  The Swing Vix usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security.  
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  


*The last signal was a Over-Bought Sell 20 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix has just reached its highest value in the last 14 period(s).  This is bullish.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, GLD - COMEX Gold FUTURES ETF's price has increased 1.11% , and has ranged from a high of 126.1700 to a low of 124.1600.


     MOMENTUM


     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is VERY-BULLISH - Heavy Accumulation.


        TREND STRENGTH - STRONG - Bullish Trend,
There is currently no trend strenght reading at this time.


TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Above it's PulseWave Cycle TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 108.9050
The close is currently Above it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 111.1798
The close is currently Above  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 120.1100 
The close is currently Above  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 123.7749 


INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 125.7178
SUPPORT 124.6123


WEEKLY PULSE WAVE PRICE PROJECTIONS
PulseWave BreakOut RESISTANCE - 123.4200
PulseWave BreakOut SUPPORT - 121.3800


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BULL MARKET UPTREND - (12-18mo) PRICE TARGET = 160.7000
Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at - 126.1700
Long term Trend Line support is currently at - 108.9050


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BUBBLE PHASE 3 - (72mo+) (TULIP CRAZE CRASH IMMANENT) PRICE TARGET = 264.2900
BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (MARKET FRENZY BUYING) PRICE TARGET = 229.7600
BUBBLE PHASE I - (24-36mo) PRICE TARGET = 195.2300


VOLATILITY
On 9/21/2010, GLD - COMEX Gold FUTURES ETF closed   above the upper band by 6.2%.


This combined with the steep uptrend suggests that the upward trend in prices has a good chance of continuing.  However, a short-term pull-back inside the bands is likely.    







=====================================================================



THE VULCAN REPORT
Review of SPY - S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY)
as of Tuesday, September 21, 2010


Today's Price Action


Change   -0.2300 (-0.20%) prices closed lower than they opened. with weak Bids going into the close. 


     MARKET SENTIMENT
  
PulseScan Swing Vix


PulseScan:     44.75
Swing Vix:     44.95


The Market Pulse is positive since it is trading above its zero signal line.The PulseScan crossed below the Swing Vix creating a DOWN Trend Channel as of    2 period(s) ago.   
A buy or sell signal is generated when the Swing Vix moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  


*The last signal was a Over-Bought Sell 28 period(s) Ago.
The Swing Vix does not currently show any Failure Swings.The Swing Vix and price are not diverging.
      
  *Since the last Swing Vix signal, SPY - S&P 500 ETF's price has increased 1.32% , and has ranged from a high of 114.8400 to a low of 112.1800.


     MOMENTUM


     MARKET TREND - Currently the TREND is .There is currently no trend reading at this time.


        TREND STRENGTH - WEAK - RANGE BOUND (Prices have ceased trending and have become consolidated at this time) The market has put in a short term top. This means that the bulls are liquidating long positions thus taking some profit off the table.,


TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT
The close is currently Above it's PulseWave Cycle TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 110.8450
The close is currently Above it's Long Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 108.6209
The close is currently Above  it's Intermediate Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 110.0781 
The close is currently Above  it's Short Term TRENDLINE RETRACEMENT. - 112.2690 


INTRADAY PRICE PROJECTIONS
RESISTANCE 114.5407
SUPPORT 113.8093


WEEKLY PULSE WAVE PRICE PROJECTIONS
PulseWave BreakOut RESISTANCE - 113.2900
PulseWave BreakOut SUPPORT - 111.9800


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BULL MARKET UPTREND - (12-18mo) PRICE TARGET = 144.6700
Long term Trend Line resistance is currently at - 122.1200
Long term Trend Line support is currently at - 110.8450


MONTHLY PRICE PROJECTIONS
BUBBLE PHASE 3 - (72mo+) (TULIP CRAZE CRASH IMMANENT) PRICE TARGET = 212.3200
BUBBLE PHASE 2 - (42-60mo) (MARKET FRENZY BUYING) PRICE TARGET = 189.7700
BUBBLE PHASE I - (24-36mo) PRICE TARGET = 167.2200


VOLATILITY
On 9/21/2010, SPY - S&P 500 ETF closed   
below the upper band by 17.0%.
This combined with the steep uptrend suggests that the upward trend in prices has a good chance of continuing.  However, a short-term pull-back inside the bands is likely.    





















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Risk Disclosure


General Advice Disclosure: Please note that the advice contained herein is general advice and is for the purposes of education only. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options, stocks, stock options and forex currencies can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You are reminded that past performance is no guarantee or reliable indication of future results. It has not been prepared taking into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.You should therefore assess whether the advice is appropriate to your individual investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. You should do this before making an investment decision based on this general advice. You can either make the assessment yourself or seek the help of a professional adviser. This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities trading. The Vulcan Report accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this expert or its contents.


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Posted by The Vulcan at 10:55 AM