ESU9: The market is pushing up before the Housing news comes out. This home price index was down last month -19.06% this month expectations are up +19.00%. This erratic movement doesn’t speak well for this composite as a reliable indicator.
We have no new patterns.
1030.00 to 1031.50 is short term medium resistance clearly trading above this resistance level takes us up to 1040.50 to 1041.50 which is strong resistance
1019.75 to 1020.25 is short term medium support clearly trading below this support level takes down to 1001.25/50 which is strong support.
This price action from 1016.00 down to 975.50 and then back up to 1035.00 this price movement is beginning to look similar to the price action that began on 5/7/09 at 925.00 down to 871.00 and then back up 953.00 and then we corrected down at 953.00 to 865.75, which created a failed head and shoulders patterns.
We have some similar patterns on the monthly charts.
The price movement in January 09 is exactly the same as the price action in July 09. In January the following month corrected back up to the equalizer before resuming its downward movement. Which means August should take us down to the equalizer at 929.75. Are they the same yes and no. Yes their wave structure is exactly the same, no they are not the same. The mass social-psychology for downward movements is not the same for upward movements. A substantial percentage of institutional investors cannot short the market, for them it’s against the grain, it’s wrong to do. They are only capable of buying not selling. Therefore I don’t foresee a decline down to 929.75. Interesting keynote the equalizer on the January monthly C/T was 865.25. Which means in essence we pushed off from 865.25 last months low, from the January monthly C/T.
Last week we had a rare pattern on the weekly chart, as I mentioned several times. Here are the numbers
Weekly Price levels
Up Price Target: 1079.00 (I’m expecting to reach 1067.25 and then pullback to the 1027.00 region)
Down Price Target: 923.00
In the medium term this week and next 1001.50 is a key level to determine immediate direction.
Above 1026.75 is a breakout,
1015.50 is support