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S.P. minis: Weekly Update

 8/30/09

WEEKLY UPDATE

S.P. mini’s: ESU9

Last weeks price movement reached an up price target on a 3 month RCT, this pattern is a minor RCT, although interesting enough it failed to reach the patterns up price extension. Here’s the patterns numbers.

RCT (from 5/7/09)

Equalizer: 912.00

Up Price Target: 1035.00

Down Price Target: 789.00

This pattern extends only to the upside

Extension price: 1040.75

Not reaching the extension is a complicated affair, most often after failing to reach the extension price target; we head back up attempting to reach 1040.75. In the event we fail to trade above 1035.00 the next price target becomes either the outer wall of the original pattern which is at 953.00,or the equalizer of the Major RCT which is 952.50. The major RCT pattern,  dominates price targets and the trading range (Ranger Counts) the major RCT pattern is as such

RCT (from 10/10/08

Equalizer: 952.50

Up Price Target: 1294.50

Down Price Target: 610.00

Due to this Major pattern we have a Ranger Count which is as such

228 pts - 114.00pts - 57pts - 28.50pts (the remainder of the numbers don’t factor out exactly)

Ranger Counts determine total price movement up and down, meaning how far the rally goes before retracing, or far the retracement reaches until we reverse back up.

The immediate up price Ranger count target is 1040.75

When we near the ranger up price target and fail to reach it, compression immediately reverses in the opposite direction as it did on Friday morning.  If this failure to reach 1040.75 remains open, then the short term trend reverses. Creating an immediate move down to at least 997.75.  We will not reach 997.75 in one move down, it appears we will bounce at 1015.50 and again at either 1008.75 or 1001.50.

According to Friday’s closing price action tonight we should immediately head up to 1034.25. In the event we don’t head upward to reach 1034.25, then the downward move continues until 1015.50, whereupon we bounce back up in pursuit of reaching 1040.75. In this case 1030.50 becomes a key level to determine the immediate direction.