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Market Update

 10/7/09

 8:28EST

ESZ9: The move up from 1012.00 was like this

At 1012.00 the Euro began to run, which pushed the dollar down and then the ESZ9 moved upward.

Then yesterday Gold pushed the dollar down and moved the ESZ9 upward

 

The ESZ9 has not yet moved upward on its own merits.

 

On the open we should have a pop-up to 1054.25

 

8:15EST

I want to show you something else that disturbs me.

 

Euro:

We gapped up on last Sunday night from 1.4573

The gap is still open

On the chart the red upward sloping line is the Gap trendline, when we break it we head down to close the gap

In addition the Euro should have reached 1.4775 yesterday, it didn’t.

Also the Euro can’t get above the equalizer at 1.4729

Here’s the pattern

C/T

POINTING DOWN

Equalizer: 1.4729

Down Price Target: 1.4631

Up Price Target: 1.4826

 

 

 

7:58EST

ESZ9: Regarding my last update:

What I’m trying to say people is this, if we lose this market (heading down sharply to 900.00 to 925.00) it’s happens now. Not trading above the lower compression seam or reaching the equalizer at 1058.75 has immediate bearish implications.

I’m not saying it will happen, I’m simply stating the last 24 hours the market looks like it could well sell-off a lot.

Early Bird

 

The Euro wants to head down, which means the ESZ9 will follow suit.

 

ESZ9: Overnight session developed 2 new complex running C/Ts

One within the other

The small one

Complex Running C/T

Equalizer: 1047.25

Down price target: 1040.50

Up Price Target: 1063.75

 

The larger pattern

Complex Running C/T

Equalizer: 1049.75

Down Price Target: 1021.75

Up Price Target: 1077.50

 

I had expected this move down when the dollar reached between 75.96 to 76.08 and when the euro reached 1.4775, it could well still happen, meaning we pop up on the ESZ9 and 6EZ9 and the Dollar in turn drops…

 

Keep in mind failure to trade above the lower compression seam at 1057.50 or even reach it should have bearish implications; In addition we failed to reach the equalizer at 1058.75. Never the less it looks like a down day it only depends how we go about doing it, a pop up and then down, or just down. Normally it would pop up and then head down, but the lower compression seam could well change that scenario, meaning we just head down.

 

Keep in mind on this potential move down failure to trade above 1022.25/50 has bearish complications and yesterday was the 63rd day correction and the monthly chart is bearish.

 

I’m still expecting a large triangle to develop between 1022.25/50 and 1058.75 over the next few days.

 

This Complex Running C/T (from 8/26/09)

 Is our Short Term (30 to 90 days from 8/26/09) master pattern

Complex Running C/T

Equalizer: 1022.25/50

Upside price Target: 1078.00 (we reached 1075.75)

Upside extension: up to 1102.00

Downside price target: 966.75

Downside extension: down to 923.00

 

Complex running C/T

Immediate term (medium term)

Equalizer: 1058.75

Downside price target: 999.25

Upside price target: 1118.00

This pattern only extends to the upside

Upside extension: 1147.50

 

This is the Irregular running C/T

Irregular running C/T’s are difficult to place a time tag on.

Irregular running C/T

Equalizer: 1058.75

Downside price target: 986.75

Upside price target: 1130.50

This pattern only extends to the upside

Upside extension: up to 1160.00

 

 

 

 

10/6/09

 

Closing Comments:

ESZ9:

In addition what also disturbs me is this chart,

The monthly chart:

The brown line is the compression trendline (support)

From the March low, the line is currently (this month) situated at 1057.25

Exactly the same location of the lower compression seam.

The month is quite young, but in the event we fail to trade above this profoundly important compression trendline, then the market either corrects down to 907.00 to 911.00 or we have a trend reversal which takes us down to 610.00

 

 

Regarding today’s price action:

What bothers me today is 2 items;

1)      We failed to reach the lower compression seam upon nearing the seam we reached 1056.75 and the lower seam is at 1057.50 and we then immediately dropped. Chart included, the orange line is the lower seam at 1057.50. As I mentioned before the compression seam separates or detaches the market into 2 different entities. Positive (bullish) Negative (bearish). Therefore we must monitor the market closely the next 24 hours, if we fail to trade above the lower compression seam at 1057.50 this is extremely bearish and could precipitate a major sell-off and in fact a create a  trend reversal.

2)      Today was the 63rd day correction cycle. If we don’t trade above today’s highs within a reasonable amount of time (1 to 3 days) we could well say 1075.75 is a top.

3)      The only reason I believe these concerns are frivolous is due to the fact the euro is still far away from 15024, and the dollar has not reached 75.75 or 75.36, in addition gold has not reached 1047.00 or 1056.50.

 

Regarding the chart:

The black dashed line is crucial to determine immediate direction. The line currently is at 1047.00 and descends 0.25 every 480 minutes. Above the line we head up, below the line we head down.