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S.P. mini's (ESH10): Before the Bell

1/22/10

 7:43EST

ESH10:

1103.50 is a down price target on a pattern from 2 days ago.

In addition it’s the speculated FR (Federal Reserve)

Buy trend line..

I’m moving my hedges up to 1103.50 (long)

 In the event we fail to reach 1103.50

I plan to take profit on half or all

If half I put on a 1 to 1 hedge

 

In the immediate term

1110.25 is the key level in order to determine immediate direction..

 

As I mentioned yesterday

We broke below the key pivot (floating equalizer)  at 1119.75

Yesterday on the large Triangle (Complex running C/T)

Therefore the move should reach 1080.00 to 1081.25

Which is the lower Channel trendline of the pattern

Providing we stay below 1119.75

 

Early Bird

 ESH10:

Immediate term: (now until 12:00EST)

C/T

Pointing Down:

Equalizer: 1111.25

Down Price Target: 1105.50

Down Extension: Down to 1102.50

Up Price Target: 1116.75 (we reached 1116.00 and immediately dropped)

 

As I mentioned on 1/18/10

We’re heading down to 1071.50

Although the question at hand is do we bounce first

The DJIA says no….

 

In the immediate term I’m expecting to reach 1104.00 to 1104.50


 Due to longs stops we could well reach 1097.50 before any substantial bounce.

In fact majority of the longs stops are below 1100.00

Therefore you know how floor traders are

If on the way down around 1100ish

If they see a large number of stops 

They short at market and very heavy..

They’re scalpers they don’t know what a over night margin is

They pay $150.00 to $250.00 margin per contract.

But if this scenario occurs we could reach 1084.00 to 1088.00 real fast, depending on the number of stops that are out there.

500k contracts we reach 1084.00

1,000,000 contracts we reach 1071.50

these conditions only exists between 9:30EST and 4:00EST

 

 

I’m still short

I’ve decided to hold all my shorts

Waiting to put on a hedge

At the 1102.50 level my first hedge goes on

It’s a 50% hedge, meaning it’s 50% less in value than my short position

I’m not crazy about it…

This puppy could croak (you know just rollover and die)

If we get near 1100ish after the open