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Dow Theory Update For March 20: Stocks Mostly Up

|Includes: DIA, GDX, GLD, IYT, SIL, SLV, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

All trends unchanged

GLD grew in tonnage yesterday.

At last, GLD gained inventory yesterday. Since February 7, 2013 GLD had not recorded one single day with inventory gains. Has the bleeding been arrested? Too soon to tell.

According to "The Reformed Broker" the odds favor a continuation of the current bull market in stocks

The Reformed Broker contains an interesting article concerning the duration of bull markets. Although the definition of "bull market" may not exactly coincide with the one given by the Dow Theory (of any "flavor" whatsoever), it is interesting to see that bull markets that made it to the four year tend to extend the advance into the fifth year. In other words, strength tends to beget strength and trends do exist.

By the way, similar conclusions are reached by Schannep in his book "The Dow Theory for the 21st Century".


The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. I see in the charts that neither index has managed to better the last recorded highs. If this situation persists, it will be hinting at the development of a secondary reaction.

Today's volume was lower than yesterday's. Since globally it was an up day, it has a bearish connotation. The overall patter of volume remains bearish.

Gold and silver

GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, both GDX and SIL closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.

If I manage to free up some time, I plan to post a new post (number IV) concerning Dow Theory performance in bull/bear markets. You can find the latest post here.


The Dow Theorist