Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Dow Theory Update For April 30: SPY Makes New Unconfirmed Higher Highs

|Includes: DIA, GDX, GLD, IYT, SIL, SLV, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

Gold stronger than silver

Let's get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.

Alternative explanation to GLD "pukes."

Here and here you can find two views on GLD inventory drain. According to them, nothing nasty is about to happen to GLD or paper gold. Since Bron Suchecki, who works at the Perth Mint, is a real "insider" and not just a phony "expert" I wouldn't discard his thoughts out of hand.

In any instance, my take is as follows. Physical gold is to be in one's possession or the closest thing to it (i.e. fully allocated gold in bullion ). I see it as a long term insurance with the potential for a windfall profit, and such core physical gold holding is not to be traded, not even under the Dow Theory. However, when it comes to "paper gold" it is a fully tradable item whose trading can benefit from the Dow Theory.


The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The SPY made a higher high, which, once again, remains unconfirmed by the other indices. Such a lack of confirmation shouldn't last too long if the primary trend is to dodge, once again, a secondary reaction.

Today's volume was higher than yesterday, which is bullish as higher prices were supported by expanding volume.

Gold and Silver

Although it is a "no-new", GLD "puked" once again. Is demand for allocated gold forcing the bullion banks to redeem GLD in search for physical?

GLD closed up. SLV closed down. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish. Yes, the secondary trend, turned bulish yesterday, as you can read here.

GDX and SIL the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. However, a further "push" upwards exceeding the last minor recorded highs (04/25/2013 for SIL and GDX) would turn the secondary trend as bullish. In the meantime, we peacefully observe the markets.


The Dow Theorist