Dow Theory Update For May 2: Gold Finally Confirms Silver's Higher Highs
Contributor Since 2012
Co-Editor of the top-ranked investment Letter thedowtheory.com
Investor and Trader As an investor I'm deeply influenced by Dow Theory, especially by the book "The Dow Theory for the 21st Century". I focus on the primary trend (1-2 years). My trading is short-term based (avg trade duration 4-5 days).
In addition to US stock indexes, I have successfully expanded the application of the Dow Theory to precious metals, their miners, and US interest rates. The Dow Theory is a more accurate timing device that moving averages, breakout systems, etc.
Trends unchanged
US STOCKS
The primary and secondary trend (as determined by Schannep's Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here.
On April 19th, the Transports broke out above its March 18th, 2016 closing highs (secondary reaction highs), and, hence, according to the "Rhea/classical" Dow Theory (which only uses the Industrials and Transports in order to look for confirmations), a primary bull market was signaled.
By the way, now we have a triple confirmation, which is normally good.
GOLD AND SILVER
The primary trend and secondary trend is bullish, as reported here and here.
SLV has recently made higher closing highs which were unconfirmed by GLD. On April 29th, GLD made higher closing highs, and hence confirmed, which tends to be positive. However, such a confirmation has taken quite a long time (more than 2 weeks), and hence, it might be indicative that a secondary reaction is coming soon.
Here you have an updated chart:
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| GLD (bottom chart) has finally deign to confirm |
GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs
The primary and secondary trend is bullish as explained here
On the other hand, SIL's higher highs have been confirmed by GDX' higher highs, so technically the primary bull market remains unchallenged.
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist