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Dow Theory Update For March 14: No Secondary Reaction For US Stocks Yet

|Includes: DIA, GDX, GLD, IYT, SIL, SLV, SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

Extent requirement not met yet.

US STOCKS

The primary and secondary trend is bullish since November 21st, 2016, as explained here and here.

On March 1, 2017, the Industrials, Transports and SPY made jointly higher highs. From this point there's been a mild decline. The Transports have declined more than 3%. The SPY and Industrials have declined much less than 3%. Hence the extent requirement for a secondary reaction has not been met (at least two indices should confirm). As to the time requirement, the three indices have been declining for 9 trading days, and more than 10 calendar days. Hence, the time requirement has been met. In the very moment, the Industrials or the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) decline more than 3%, we will declare stocks under a secondary (bearish) reaction against the primary bull market.

Under the classical/Rhea Dow Theory we are still far from a secondary reaction as of this writing.

Here you have an updated chart:

As soon as the extent requirement is met, a secondary reaction will be declared

GOLD AND SILVER

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here. The primary bear market was signaled on September 30rd, 2016.

The secondary trend is bullish (secondary bullish reaction against the primary bear market), as explained here.

As was explained here, SLV and GLD have set up for a primary bull market signal. Please mind that "setup" is not tantamount to the actual signal. If the last recorded primary bear market lows were jointly revisited, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action.

GOLD AND SILVER MINERS EFTs

The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here.

The secondary trend is bullish as explained here

As was explained here, SIL and GDX have set up for a primary bull market signal.

If the last recorded primary bear market lows were jointly revisited, the primary bear market would be reconfirmed.

As an aside, it is worth mentioning that the primary trend when using weekly bars is bearish, which tends to be headwind for any meaningful bullish action.

Sincerely,

The Dow Theorist