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Inflation: A Monkey Wrench Into The Goverment's Expansionary Plot

Market Club has come out with its new technical analysis video on the CRB index (composed of 19 different commodities contracts, though it is about 30% energy). You can view the video by clicking on the screenshot below. I agree with Market Club that the CRB is heading higher, possibly to the 50% retracement level of $336, which is still close to a 19% upside. My view is that the Fed and the Treasury will do all it can to maintian an expansionary monetary policy until the US economic recovery is in firm footing... but a rise in commodity prices and thus inflation can force them to raise rates reluctantly. This is as commodity prices are being influence right now by a recovery in the global economy (see numbers out of Australia and South Korea), to which the US economy is clearly lagging.