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The Ukrainian Choice

Perhaps the "discussion" occurring at the moment in the Ukraine, is really a discussion of market's. Clearly, the Russian or the "Global" market.

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Perhaps we see, Ukrainian congressman(usually either capital(factories, etc,) owning elite, or their proxies) out in the street urging the protestors forward, essentially because they(rightly or wrongly), perceive the EU, and its standardization per se, of transactions(a legal framework, a regulatory framework etc), as giving them essentially an open door to the world as far as trade is concerned.

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The Russian choice is perhaps a defensive play because though the Russian market broadly speaking isn't as well regulated, and isn't as sort of "transparent", or predictable(much occurs behind closed doors), it is a strong state, and hence it makes sense from a stateman's perspective to choose a stronger allie versus the opposite. ___________________________________________________________

Hence, in a sense if we were to rephrase this situation in the Ukraine, perhaps we would characterize it as, the sort of political elite, vs the commercial elite/commercial semi-elite, because the true commercial elites, with investments in large scale commodity production, would probably be relatively stable either way. Hence it is the local manufactures, in a sense the conglomerate of smaller scale capitalists per se(kind of bourgeoisie if one will) who would like greater entrance into the global markets via the Euro-stamp-of-approval.

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On the ground people are protesting about the way protesters have been treated supposedly, saying for example, that they associate the beating of "young people" with the Russian oriented elite, etc., and that this isn't the direction they want their country to go in. Of course, this reactionary to reactionary, and far removed from the real discussion, that would lead semi-elites, and their representatives, out onto the street(see politicians in the streets as discussed earlier). Of course the real hippo in the punch bowl, is the market based decision, because that's where large, and semi-large elites, would have their squabbles presumably.

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Hence, perhaps in choosing Russia, Yanukovich, I believe his name is, is essentially choosing a strong state, namely Russia, vs. the potential to world markets, that may or may not even want one's goods, and or the rent essentially that Western European capitalists, would pay to Ukrainian semi-elites, to use their capital, namely factories, and "labor-pool". Hence in the end, perhaps it was a strategically wise decision to choose, the "sure thing" bet, especially given the really rough situation in much of the Eurozone at the moment, but perhaps ultimately it's a choice, that would empower true elites, and make life harder for semi-elites, because while true-elites, would take advantage of the strong state, to in essence, more fully enforce their will on others via the states' institutions, some elements pertaining to the rule of law, such as the enforcement of contracts etc, might diminish, hence harming those with business interest, but not the clout to enforce them, in a clout-based-legal-system per se, where might dictates that which is right.

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Hence even though hundreds of thousands of people are in the streets, for one reason or another, perhaps this is really a debate amongst the elites and semi-elites. For, surely they would have much more to gain or lose per se, from this decision one way or another, than the other members of society, who might simply be trading underemployment, for a factory job(factory from Western European rent of local capital).

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Hence its a strange debacle perhaps occurring there in Ukraine at the moment, and perhaps the sooner it is over the better, for all parties involved. For surely if it goes on much longer, it will simply show to those who would rent capital there, that their investment might not be safe, given the inability of the state, to prevent mass-movement oriented instability, and hence, in a way, to have deals with a strong state(Russia), and a well regulated market(NYSEARCA:EU) would be ideal, but for whatever reason, this zero-sum-game presumption simply harms the same capital owning semi-elites, who would presumably have the most to gain from the EU deal.

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For more on this sort of elite vs semi-elite sort of struggle, one can look at the philandering of the kings and noblemen of Medieval England, whose struggles per se, ultimately ended up the in the creation of the Magna-Carta(a device created to protect the nobles and their kin, from vengeful kings). This discussion of Medieval England which usually entailed, the presence of either France, or the Papacy, is somewhat similar, as local rent-seeking elites, try to spurn the definitive elite's attempts to join forces, with foreign(simply speaking) nodes, of power, and in essence, shift the states focus away from the desires of local semi-elites.

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Other's may say this is the product of social grievances with the semi- recent Soviet Union. I don't know if this would motivate young people, as much as the idea of being "European" would, but perhaps it similar to an IPOD release day frenzy, people will wait in line for days to be the guy/gal who owns an Apple phone, etc, perhaps the same way that they will throw themselves, at perhaps surprised and exhausted policemen in the name of being "European". Perhaps sometimes people will ironically fight for vanity much more so than they would for actual capital gains, or perhaps there is more to the story, and this is simply a cathartic moment for disaffected younger members of Ukrainian society(which also seems likely), but for the official decision, it would perhaps be wise to keep an eye on the elite's interests for, rightly or wrongly, they usually end up being the "deciders" in a commercial-democratic system.