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Economic Data For the Week of Oct 12, 2009

The following key economic data will be released this week:

1.) Fed Minutes
- September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be released mid-day Wednesday.  At the September meeting the Fed reiterated that the Treasury purchase program would be completed by the end of October and extended the mortgage purchase program to the first quarter of 2010 from the calendar year-end. The Fed addressed inflation in more detail in the short statement that was released immediately following the meeting, saying that they expected inflation to remain subdued “for some time”.
 
2.) Consumer Price Index - Thursday brings the Consumer Price Index (NYSEARCA:CPI), forecasted to show prices rose 0.2% in September after rising 0.4% in August. Excluding food and energy, the index is estimated to have increased just 0.1%, the same rate of increase that was experienced in August. While food and energy are the smallest components of the CPI basket at 23%, they tend to explain a majority of changes in the headline rate.
 
3.) Industrial Production Report – Scheduled for Friday, the Industrial Production Report is expected to show an increase of 0.1% in September, after rising 0.8% in the month of August, which would mark the third-straight increase. Similar to the retail sales data in August, the auto sector boosted the overall numbers alongside strength in almost every sector. Capacity utilization is expected to improve from 69.6% in August to 69.7% for September.
 
4.) Advance Retail Sales – Advance retail sales for September will be reported on Wednesday, where sales are expected to have fallen 2.1% month-over-month (m/m), after rising 2.7% in August on the back of strong auto sales, driven by the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” program.  Sales ex-autos are expected to have risen 0.2% m/m, after a much better-than-expected reading of 1.1% in August, with strength being broad-based, demonstrating growing health in the economy outside of government support.