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Heading Into 2018

Dec. 11, 2017 6:03 PM ETUSO, GLD, SPY, UUP
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.


  • 2017 was an eventful one.
  • Oil and S&P - down, gold and USD - up.
  • Happy New Year!

This year has been quite eventful for the markets. The continuing political instability, an announced gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus across the globe, and the sustainable trends in oil, gold, S&P, USD – the market situation has been changing very rapidly (I haven’t mentioned cryptomania!). The market environment requires writing more ideas; however, being an active trader, it is not that easy. That is why I decided to prepare this short post with my global market view.

In a nutshell, oil – down, gold – temporarily down (then up to new highs), S&P – down, USD – up.

The main risk for the bullish market in oil goes from central banking activity (remember 2014?). The technical picture of gold is more complex and less encouraging, but this investment will certainly pay off in the long term (Elliott Wave analysis confirms that idea).

I recommended staying long S&P 500, and hope, you’ve benefited from this advice. Now, I think, it’s the best time to take money out of the table because everybody believes that “cash is trash” (we are near the top). Times are changing, but people never.

As far as FX is concerned, the troubles in the Eurozone are deadly serious, and I think we may go way below the parity level (for EUR/USD and GBP/USD).

Finally, a little disclaimer: the market situation may change, but your risk management may not. Remember that investments involve risk. Manage your money wisely.

Wish you all great things in upcoming New Year!

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