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IPhone Release History - What To Expect.

|Includes: Apple Inc. (AAPL)

Recent history of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone releases:

September 7, 2016 - iPhone 7
September 25, 2015 - iPhone 6s, 6s plus
September 19, 2014 - iPhone 6, 6 plus
September 20, 2013 - iPhone 5c, 5s
September 21, 2012 - iPhone 5
October 14, 2011 - iPhone 4s
June 24, 2010 - iPhone 4
source: https://www.theiphonewiki.com/wiki/Timeline

September 25, 2015 - iPhone 6s, 6s plus

Before release, the AAPL stock was moving basically side-way.
On release date, the AAPL stock opened 0.48% up and then declined by closing -0.24% down at $114.72.
After release, the retailed traders (feed by news and rumors) pushed the AAPL stock about 6% (from $115) down to $108 (on October 1, 2015) . It started to recover after that.
After third quarter earning report, when some iPhone sales numbers were out, pushed by institutional traders, by November 4, 2015, the AAPL stock hit $123 which was about 6.9% up from $115 (on Sep. 25, 2015).

Chart #1: AAPL hourly stock chart during iPhone 6s release:

Source of the hourly and daily AAPL historical charts: www.marketvolume.com/charts/

September 19, 2014 - iPhone 6, 6 plus

Before release, the AAPL stock was moving basically side-way.
On release date the AAPL stock opened 0.5% up and then declined by closing -0.82% down at $100.96.
After that, the AAPL stock moved about 2.9% (from $101) down to $98 (on September 25, 2014). It moved side-way after that.
After third quarter earning report, when some iPhone sales numbers were released, pushed by institutional traders, by November 25, 2014, the AAPL stock hit $119 which was 17.8% up from $101 (on Sep. 19, 2014)

Chart #2: AAPL hourly stock chart during iPhone 6 release:

Note : numbers below take into account AAPL stock splits.

September 20, 2013 - iPhone 5c, 5s

Before the release, the AAPL stock declined strongly and then recovered half of the losses.
On release date the AAPL stock opened 1.2% up and then declined by closing -1.03% down at $65.30.
After that, the AAPL stock moved about 4.5% (from $66) up to $69 (on September 24, 2013) . It moved side-way after that.
After third quarter earning report, when some iPhone sales numbers were released, pushed by institutional traders, by December 5, 2013, the AAPL stock hit $80 which was 21% up from $66 (on Sep. 20, 2013).

Chart #3: AAPL hourly stock chart during iPhone 5s release:

September 21, 2012 - iPhone 5

Before the release, the AAPL stock moved up.
On release date the AAPL stock opened 0.5% up and then declined by closing in green 0.02% up (from previous day close) at $95.53
After that, the AAPL stock moved around 5% (from $96) down to $91 (on September 26, 2012). It continued to decline after that.
After third quarter earning report, when iPhone sales numbers were released, pushed by institutional traders, by December 17, 2012, the AAPL stock crashed down to $72 which was 25% down from $96 (on Sep. 21, 2015). The AAPL stock continued to decline until April of 2013.

Chart #4: AAPL hourly stock chart during iPhone 5 release:

October 14, 2011 - iPhone 4s

Before the release, the AAPL stock moved up.
On release date the AAPL stock opened 2.05% up and then continued to rally up by closing 3.33% up at $57.34.
After that, the AAPL stock moved around 7% (from $57) down to $53 (on October 21, 2011). It continued to decline after that.
After third quarter earning report, even iPhone 4s was released in 4th quarter, when some of iPhone sales numbers were out, pushed by institutional traders, the AAPL stock reversed up and by January 12, 2012 it recovered completely from loses (was around $57) and the AAPL sock continued to rally up until April of 2012.

Chart #5: AAPL hourly stock chart during iPhone 4s release:

June 24, 2010 - iPhone 4

Before the release, the AAPL stock moved up.
On release date the AAPL stock opened flat and then declined by closing 0.76% down at $36.54.
After that, the AAPL stock moved almost 7% (from $57) down to $34 (on July 1, 2010). It moved side-way after that.
At the end of August, after second quarter earning report, when some same iPhone 4 sale number, even iPhone 4s was released in 2nd quarter, pushed by institutional traders, the AAPL stock reversed up and by September 15, 2010 it recovered completely from loses (was around $36) and the AAPL sock continued to rally up until February of 2011.

Chart #6: AAPL daily stock chart during iPhone 4 release:

Summary.

  • Every time on the iPhone's release date, the AAPL stock has positive opening. Only once in 2011 (when iPhone 4s) it continued to move up after opening. In the rest of cases, after opening positive swing, the AAPL stock declined.
  • Every time, several days right after the iPhone release, the first wave was negative - the APPL stock declined. The exception was in 2013 when iPhone 5s was released - the AAPL advanced strongly on the next day after its release, yet it declined after that. The first reaction (first wave after iPhone release) is mostly based on iPhone sales rumors published in the media.
  • Strong reaction on the iPhone sales number, usually comes after quarterly earning reports - when some or final iPhone sales numbers are out and when institutional traders have solid ground either to push the AAPL stock up or crash it down.

As of now, starting from August 16, 2016, the AAPL stock has been moving down. However, it recovered about half of its losses over the past 3 trading sessions. According to the history of the iPhone release events, we should not expect any miracles on that day.

If history will repeat itself, most likely, we will have positive opening, when AAPL's loyalist (encouraged by release event) will push the AAPL stock up. Then more conservative traders may push the price down.

After the release date we will have different rumors in the media about sales. As usually we will hear some disappointments that new iPhone is not as good as expected, something as always will not work and would require some patches and updates. Furthermore, we may see the AAPL stock sliding down. This is normal media reaction - they always are trying to find something that does not work.

Do not get caught by the first rumors.

The real game will came in October-November 2016, after 3rd quarter earnings are released and when Apple will report some iPhone 7 sales number.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.