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Historical Low In Volatility

|Includes: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), IWM, QQQ, SPY

Summary

Long-term Breadth on the S&P 500, NYSE, Russell 2000

Short-term market Breadth sentiment

Volume analysis of market indexes

It was the Russell 2000's week - it led the advance. The DJI index on the other hand, in opposite to previous weeks, was lagging behind by ending this week 0.24% up only. Bullish week improved the long-term Breadth data:

73% of the S&P 500 (SPY) index listed stocks are bullish - 3% more than a week ago;
83% of the DJI index (DIA) listed stocks are bullish - no changes from a week ago;
80% of the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) index listed stocks are bullish - 7% more than a week ago;
67% of the Russell 2000 (IWM) index listed stocks are bullish - 5% more than a week ago;
66% of the NYSE index listed stocks are bullish - 3% more than a week ago.
Source: https://www.marketvolume.com/advance_decline/highlowrangechart.asp

The long-term Bulls are in charge - they continue dominating the market.

One of the best thing is that this week improved the short-term Breadth sentiment as well. By the end of this week we have following Breadth numbers on the S&P 500:

343 stocks are above 200-day MA - up by 16 from a week ago - Bullish sentiment,
329 stocks are above 120-day MA - up by 17 from a week ago - Bullish sentiment,
327 stocks are above 50-day MA - up by 33 from a week ago - Bullish sentiment,
329 stocks are above 20-day MA - up by 10 from a week ago - Bullish sentiment.
Source: https://www.marketvolume.com/advance_decline/highlowrangechartsimple.asp

Such increase in the number of the bullish stocks would favor the Bulls for the coming week.

Volume data on the other hand are starting to show some weakness. We have decline in money flow on the S&P 500, DJI, Nasdaq 100 and NYSE Composite. Also, we see the competed Accumulation phase on these indexes. Russell 2000 index is the only one which still has stable positive money flow.

We also had further drop in volatility. The 14-day ATR (Average True Range) on the S&P 500 hit the historical lows.

Overall, positive Breadth data and weakness in volume data point to neutral-to-positive trading for the coming week. Low volatility also suggests we should not expect lot of up-side action.

Chart courtesy of https://www.marketvolume.com





Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.