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Economic Calendar: China Data and Developed Market Inflation

|Includes: CNY, EU, FXF, iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI), GBB, INR, JYN, UUP

 Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 12th of June 2011. This week the main event is China’s monthly data dump, where it will release CPI, PPI, retail sales, industrial production, new loans, money supply, and fixed asset investment figures.  Speaking of inflation data, the US, UK, and EU all also have inflation data due out this week.  Also, Japan, Switzerland, and India are among the central banks announcing interest rate decisions this week.

Date

GMT

Country/ Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

SUN

 

CNY

Actual FDI (YoY)

 

15.20%

SUN

 

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY)

 

-4.20%

SUN

 

CNY

New Yuan Loans

650.0B

739.6B

SUN

 

CNY

Money Supply - M0 (YoY)

 

14.70%

SUN

 

CNY

Money Supply - M1 (YoY)

13.70%

12.90%

SUN

 

CNY

Money Supply - M2 (YoY)

15.50%

15.30%

SUN

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY)

4.90%

9.10%

MON

08:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY)

2.00%

0.80%

MON

 

JPY

Bank of Japan Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

MON

00:01

CNY

China Manpower Survey

 

29.00%

MON

02:00

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY)

6.50%

6.80%

MON

02:00

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

5.50%

5.30%

MON

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY)

17.00%

17.10%

MON

02:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD YoY

16.90%

16.50%

MON

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY)

13.10%

13.40%

MON

02:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD YoY

14.00%

14.20%

MON

02:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD YoY

25.20%

25.40%

TUE

04:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY)

 

-14.00%

TUE

08:30

GBP

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

4.50%

4.50%

TUE

08:30

GBP

Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)

3.50%

3.70%

TUE

08:30

GBP

Retail Price Index (YoY)

5.20%

5.20%

TUE

12:30

USD

Producer Price Index (YoY)

6.60%

6.80%

TUE

12:30

USD

Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

2.10%

2.10%

TUE

12:30

USD

Advance Retail Sales

-0.40%

0.50%

TUE

12:30

USD

Retail Sales Less Autos

0.30%

0.60%

TUE

12:30

USD

Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas

0.30%

0.20%

WED

05:30

EUR

French Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2.10%

2.10%

WED

07:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY)

-0.10%

0.10%

WED

08:30

GBP

Jobless Claims Change

6.5K

12.4K

WED

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

4.80%

5.60%

WED

12:30

USD

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

3.40%

3.20%

WED

12:30

USD

Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)

1.40%

1.30%

WED

13:15

USD

Industrial Production

0.20%

0.00%

WED

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization

77.00%

76.90%

WED

22:00

NZD

Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence

 

97.90

WED

02:00

CNY

China April Leading Economic Index

 

 

THU

07:15

CHF

Industrial Production (YoY)

5.60%

6.10%

THU

07:30

CHF

Swiss National Bank Rate Decision

0.25%

0.25%

THU

08:00

EUR

Italian Consumer Price Index (YoY)

3.00%

3.00%

THU

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY)

1.50%

2.80%

THU

08:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY)

1.50%

2.80%

THU

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

1.60%

1.60%

THU

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2.70%

 

THU

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Employment (QoQ)

 

0.20%

THU

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Employment (YoY)

 

0.20%

THU

12:30

USD

Building Permits

552K

563K

THU

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

545K

523K

THU

12:30

USD

Current Account Balance

-$130.0B

-$113.3B

THU

23:50

JPY

BOJ Minutes of May 19-20 Board Meeting

 

 

FRI

09:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY)

 

-4.90%

FRI

13:55

USD

U. of Michigan Confidence

74.00

74.30

 

As noted the main event this week will be the China data, which is always good to check up on to gauge how the world’s second largest economy is tracking. One of the key indicators to watch will be inflation, i.e. CPI, which is expected to show a slightly higher year on year rate, about 5.8% as property expenses and food prices have been tracking upwards in May. The other data points; industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment should come in more or less flat, but watch for any significant changes or extension of slowing in some of the points.


Another key data set will be the inflation numbers. The United States is expected to show a slight increase in both headline and core inflation, with year on year CPI inflation expected around 3.4%. The UK is expected to see a slight slowing of its core inflation rate and headline should stay around 4.5%. The Euro Zone will likely see headline inflation stick around 2.7% and core about 1.6%. So, not expecting anything dramatic, but a slight upward tick in inflation.


In the monetary policy space there’s the Bank of Japan on the 14th of June (expected to hold at 0.10%), Central Bank of Chile on the 14th of June (expected to raise 25bps from current 5.00%), Central Bank of Iceland on the 15th of June (expected to hold at 4.25%), Central Bank of Philippines on the 16th of June (expected to raise 25bps from current 4.50%), the Reserve Bank of India on the 16th of June (expected to raise 25bps from current 7.25%), and The Swiss National bank also on the 16th (expected to hold at 0.25%). Of course there is also a chance the People's Bank of China will do something when the inflation figures come out.


Elsewhere there’s some key US data points to watch: Producer prices are expected to show little change, retail sales are expected to decline – but post a small gain excluding autos, industrial production may show a small gain, while the UoM confidence index should stay around 74. Outside of the US, Japan has machine orders and industrial production figures, and the Euro Zone has some employment numbers.


So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...

Sources

·         DailyFX

·         Forex Pros

·         Forex Factory

·         Bloomberg

+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification



Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.