2 Exciting Ways To Cash In On The Best Investing Opportunities Of 2021
Summary
- 2021 is off to a great start for value stocks, which are up almost 11% in three months. As JPMorgan predicted, this year is a "stock picker's paradise."
- All Dividend Kings and iREIT portfolios have smashed their benchmarks since inception, making our members millions in profits and helping them achieve their financial dreams.
- That's because we have world-class analysts using disciplined financial science to find the best low-risk/high-probability opportunities on Wall Street.
- We just introduced two new exciting features: Our real-money Phoenix portfolio tracking tool and new specialty watchlists for foreign dividend stocks and strong ESG picks.
- This month, you can take advantage of our special March Madness bundle, which gives you 50% off DK, iREIT, and Safe High-Yield.
Earlier this year, JPMorgan called 2021 a "stock pickers paradise."
But I'd argue that, for disciplined long-term investors, every year is a stock picker's paradise. Because it's always a market of stocks, not a stock market.
Sure, 2021 has been fantastic so far for value companies, which are up 11% in less than three months – more than doubling the S&P 500. However, for many of 2020's best blue-chip bargain values, such as:
It's been an even better beginning, soaring up to 38% year-to-date. Meanwhile, check out my Real Money Retirement Portfolio:
(Source: DK Real Money Phoenix Portfolio Tracking Tool) updated daily
With all of that going on, per member request, we've added a great new tool to track the real-money Phoenix portfolios:
DK Video Phoenix – 100% real-money buys of every Daily Blue-Chip Deal Video
DS Phoenix – every real-money buy my retirement portfolio has made since April 2020.
All told, 35 of Phoenix companies are up 10% or more in 2021. That's more than 2x the S&P 500 and at least 15x better than the tech-focused Nasdaq.
Our focus on disciplined financial science is based on quality first, and sound valuation and prudent risk management always.
To achieve this, we combine several proven alpha-factor strategies into every recommendation.
Our focus is always on strong fundamentals, especially yield, growth, and value, the holy trinity of long-term total returns.
It was definitely behind our March 12 decision to sell ViacomCBS (VIAC) from our Deep Value Portfolio at a 209% profit.
VIAC was 60% overvalued by then, so we put that money to work into a much higher-quality company, British American Tobacco (BTI), at a greater than 50% discount to fair value.
Since then, VIAC is down 30% and BTI is up 5%.
This is just one more piece of further proof that deep-value blue-chip investing done right leads to great results. And by “done right,” I mean by following the principles of disciplined financial science as taught by the greatest investors in history.
The Greatest Investors In History
Name |
Returns |
Time Horizon |
Jim Simmons (co-founder, Renaissance Technologies) |
71.8% CAGR |
1994-2014 (best investing record ever documented) |
Joel Greenblatt |
40% CAGR |
21 years at Gotham Capital |
Peter Lynch |
29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund |
1977-1990 (13 years) |
Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust, 1990-2006) |
22.8% CAGR, beating the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years |
54 years |
Warren Buffett |
20.8% CAGR at Berkshire |
1934-1956 |
Benjamin Graham |
20% CAGR vs. 12% S&P 500 |
38 years |
Edward Thorp (invented card counting) |
20%+ CAGR |
over 30 years |
John Templeton |
300% in 1939-1943, 15.8% CAGR in 1954-1992 |
38 years |
Carl Icahn |
14.6% CAGR vs. 5.6% S&P 500 |
2001-2016 |
David Swenson |
13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs. 10.7% S&P 500 |
30 years |
This is the approach that’s led to incredible success, including:
84% of my more than 1,000 recommendations on over 500 companies over the last five years, generating positive returns in the first 12 months
90% of my retirement portfolio holdings being positive
The average recommendation, including dividends, delivering about 32% total returns in the first year
That’s why I’m the #1 analyst out of over 15,400 tracked on TipRanks – over 7,000 of who work on Wall Street.
(Source: Tip Ranks)
Since launching DK, every single one of our model and real-money portfolios is beating their benchmarks, and by impressive amounts.
(Source: Sharesight)
The financial science that’s delivered such impressive results is not just what DK practices. It’s true of all Wide Moat Services, including Brad Thomas’ iREIT on Alpha and Nicholas Ward’s Safe High Yield, which focuses only on the safest high-yield blue-chips.
(Source: Sharesight)
That’s how Brad Thomas has been able to deliver 24% annual returns on his real estate investment trust-filled portfolios since 2014.
That doesn’t just triple REITs’ performance in general… It outperforms the dividend aristocrats, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.
THIS is the power of disciplined financial science at work. It's not magic; it's just math. Very, very strong math.
Based on that same math, Dividend Kings recently launched a new portfolio: DK Phoenix ESG. Here’s what Research Affiliates wrote about the movement to make environmental, social, and governance factors matter more (emphasis added):
Based on demographics, we conservatively estimate over $20tn of asset growth in ESG funds over the next two decades—equivalent to the S&P 500 today.”
Similarly, an Accenture study concluded that US$30 trillion in assets will change hands, a staggering amount which, at its peak between 2031 and 2045, will witness 10% of total US wealth transferred every five years."
According to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers them important and builds them into their safety models and ratings:
BlackRock – #1 asset manager in the world
MSCI – #1 indexing giant
Morningstar
Reuters'/Refinitiv
ISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) – #1 corporate proxy firm on earth
S&P
Fitch
Moody's
DBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)
A. M. Best (insurance industry rating agency)
Bank of America – one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world, according to Market Watch
Bloomberg
FactSet Research
State Street – one of the largest custodial banks on earth
Wells Fargo – another of Market Watch’s most accurate economic/analyst teams
Nareit.
Research Affiliates says that ESG isn't a standalone factor, it can help improve other proven alpha factors such as consistent dividend growth and overall quality.
Think of it as a credit rating: an important component of a company's overall risk profile.
The average credit rating for a dividend aristocrat is A- and stable, indicating approximately a 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.
Though strong balance sheets don't drive strong returns on their own, they’re a sign of a financially strong company with disciplined management
In other words, helping deliver more consistent dividend growth over time and superior long-term profitability are both alpha factors well worth taking into consideration.
Dividend Kings Real Money Phoenix ESG Portfolio
Dividend Kings Phoenix ESG Fundamentals
(Source: Morningstar)
That’s why DK launched a real-money ESG portfolio that screens the strong ESG watchlist for valuation and long-term consensus return potential. It ensures that:
The quality of the companies is impeccable, confirmed by profitability that's significantly higher than the S&P 500’s
The valuations are reasonable (1% undervalued per Morningstar's estimates)
The yield is 2x that of the S&P 500 and 1% more than dividend aristocrats
The growth consensus forecast is almost 13% CAGR, almost double that of the aristocrats.
If these companies grow as expected, DK Phoenix ESG will deliver safe and growing income, as well as close to 16% annual long-term returns…
Thereby outperforming the vast majority of ESG funds, as well as the aristocrats and S&P 500.
While this new portfolio is very young, it's already off to a smashing start, with 40x better returns than the S&P 500. And we expect very good things from it going forward as well.
That’s true of all our portfolios, for the record.
Why do we have such confidence in what we do? Because we focus on the only things that matter:
Quality
Yield, growth, and value
Prudent risk management lets you sleep well at night while your companies work hard to make you rich.
The secret of our success isn’t just in our disciplined financial science. It's also in the very powerful tools that allow our members to select the best quality companies for any specific goal, time horizon, or risk profile.
2 New DK Watchlists to Help You Achieve Your Retirement Dreams
(Source: DK Research Terminal)
We now have 14 specialty watchlists, including:
Dividend champions
Dividend aristocrats
Dividend kings
12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect-quality companies as exist on Wall Street)
Phoenix Watchlist (the only companies we're buying in this pandemic)
Top Weekly Buy List
Hyper-growth companies
Safe midstreams
Safe monthly dividend payers
Foreign dividend stocks
Strong ESG
(Source: DK Research Terminal)
For the record, the colors above are coded as:
Green = potentially good buy or better
Blue = potential reasonable buy
Yellow = hold.
DK isn't just about offering reasonable and prudent long-term investing ideas. Though, naturally, we offer many actionable recommendations.
We strive to create the best investing tools and then teach you how to use them to empower you to take control of your financial destiny.
British American Tobacco: The Best Deal Among Foreign Dividend Blue-Chips
(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)
Back to BTI, it’s a name I've been recommending for months now. I've personally invested over $55,000 into this 11/12 Super SWAN quality company in the last year.
It's the most undervalued foreign dividend stock and blue-chip quality company on Wall Street today. And, as I said before, it’s now up over 5% in recent weeks…
While still trading near the best valuations in two decades.
Bristol-Myers: A Strong ESG Bargain That Could Make You Buffett-Like Returns
BMY Consensus ESG Financial Risk Rating
Rating Agency |
Industry Percentile |
Rating Agency Classification |
MSCI |
85.0% |
A, above-average |
Morningstar/Sustainalytics |
94.3% |
22.6/100, medium risk |
Reuters/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating) |
50.0% |
average |
Consensus |
76.4% |
good |
(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)
BMY is still 35% undervalued despite a 50% rally off 2018 lows – a rally that has delivered 27% annualized total returns from a blue-chip bargain that’s been hiding in plain sight for years.
(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)
If BMY grows as expected and returns to historical fair value – 18x-20x earnings that hundreds of millions of investors over 20 years have determined is its objective intrinsic value – then analysts expect potentially 160% total returns.
That's a 41% annual return potential over the short-term or 80x that of the 34% overvalued S&P 500.
Bristol is the mirror image of the S&P 500 when it comes to valuation. Yet it represents one of the highest-quality companies on earth.
This is blue-chip bargain investing done right.
This is ESG investing done right.
This is dividend growth investing done right.
And it’s how you practice disciplined financial science.
Not through rampant speculation in NFTs, SPACs, crypto, or other high-risk "assets." But through buying quality companies in a disciplined and methodical manner with high margins of safety.
Dividend Kings and its Wide Moat Research parent are here to help teach all investors how to take control of their financial futures. Whatever your budget, experience level, or needs, we can help you to avoid costly mistakes and profit from incredible opportunities.
Better yet, that’s true in any market, economic, or interest rate environment
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In March you can take advantage of our special bundle offer to subscribe to all three Wide Moat Services at a 50% discount if you sign up for the full year.
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Click here for a two-week free trial so we can help you achieve your financial goals… all while you sleep well at night in all market and economic conditions.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long BTI, BMY.
Dividend Kings owns BTI, and BMY in our portfolios.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.