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The Secret To Retiring Rich

May 09, 2021 12:07 PM ET26 Comments
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.


  • Since 1926, 52% of all stocks lost money. In the last 10 years, 58% did.
  • The difference between the haves and have-nots? That would be safety and quality. They’re what separate value traps from incredible opportunities.
  • That’s why we designed our Automated Investment Decision Tool. It’s designed to give you an intense edge in ensuring that every investment you make is reasonable and prudent.
  • Using it, our Daily Blue-Chip Deal Videos have recommended 115 real-money blue-chip buys. Ninety-three of them are up, and 11% are up over 100%. And every one of the portfolios we run, including our real-money Phoenix portfolios, is crushing their benchmarks by 2x-7x.
  • As I always say, with disciplined financial science you never have to pray for luck on Wall Street. You make your own. It’s that kind of attitude that has me assessing Altria (MO) and AbbVie (ABBV) as two amazing high-yield dividend aristocrat bargain opportunities. And there are dozens more hiding in plain sight. Dividend Kings wants to help you find them to achieve the rich retirement you deserve.

According to the 2017 study “Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?” by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University, 52% of all stocks lose money over time. It looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that:

(Source: Bessembinder et al)

  • About 12% went to zero.

  • Over 11% of U.S. companies listed on U.S. exchanges went bankrupt.

  • About 4% delivered 100% of net positive returns.

  • Just 48% delivered positive returns.

A follow-up study examined the performance of U.S. stocks over the last decade. It found that the importance of safety and quality had only increased.

The stock market enjoyed 13.9% compound annual growth rate (OTC:CAGR) returns… yet just 42% of U.S. stocks made positive returns. Thirty-six percent lost money, including dividends, and 22% were acquired or went bankrupt.

Can you see now why blue-chips are our primary focus? They’re far more likely to generate positive returns, beat the market, and most importantly, far less likely to go to zero.

I've spent seven years studying decades of market data and the greatest investors in history to learn the secret to getting and staying rich on Wall Street. Table Description automatically generated

Between myself and my colleagues at Wide Moat Research, we have over 100 years of experience in asset management. Here’s what we've concluded are the keys to getting and staying rich on Wall Street:

  1. Portfolio risk management, which avoids catastrophic failure during bear markets)

  2. Company safety, which minimizes the risk of owning companies that go to zero

  3. Company quality, which maximizes the chance of owning companies that make money over time

  4. Yield, the easiest total return factor you can control

  5. Growth, the entire point of long-term investing

  6. Valuation, the most powerful return factor for blue-chips.

Ultimately, fundamentals drive returns while risk management keeps you in the game long enough to win it.

The Dividend Kings Phoenix approach focuses on those six core principles.

The result has been one of the most comprehensive total return models on Wall Street, incorporating 143 proven fundamental metrics, including:

  • Dividend safety

  • Balance sheet strength

  • Short and long-term bankruptcy risk

  • Accounting and corporate fraud risk

  • Profitability and business model

  • Growth consensus estimates

  • Cost of capital

  • ESG (environmental, societal, and governance) scores from MSCI, Morningstar, S&P, and Reuters'/Refinitiv

  • Management quality

  • Dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability

  • Long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality).

All told, it includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by the eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk. And every one of them was selected based on:

  • Decades of empirical data

  • History’s greatest investors

  • What blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to long-term success in companies.

I use this model to maintain one of the highest-quality watchlists on earth, the DK 500 master list. It tracks every single:

  • Dividend champion

  • Dividend aristocrat

  • Dividend king

  • Global aristocrat (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)

  • 12/12 Ultra SWANs, which are as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street (think wide-moat aristocrats).

The Master List powers all the Dividend Kings’ tools. It’s made our members millions in profits over the last year and will eventually make us billions over the coming years and decades.

These are some bold assertions I'm making, admittedly. So here’s the proof of the power of our brand of disciplined financial science.

(Source: Tipranks)

Since 2016, I've recommended over 500 companies, more than 1,000 times, across nearly 900 articles. The average capital gain, not including dividends, is +32.7% over the next year alone.

Including dividends, its about 37% total returns within a year.

I've achieved this success, not through technical analysis or market timing, but by purely focus on disciplined financial science.

(Source: Tipranks)

Consider Altria, which I've invested about $20,000 in over the past year. I've recommended this 12/12 Ultra SWAN dividend king 32 times since late 2018.

The average 12-month total return, including dividends, is 26%. And Altria has been flat this whole time, struggling through its third-worst bear market ever.

Its prolonged woes began in 2017 after it was 60% overvalued – making it almost as bad as so many tech stocks today.

I didn't recommend MO when it was overvalued. But I've been pounding the table now that its fundamentals have been growing steadily and its valuation and margin of safety are the best in decades.

The result has been market-smashing returns from a legendary dividend blue-chip that's been in and still is in a bear market.

It's not magic. It's math and disciplined financial science that makes people sustainably rich on Wall Street.

(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet Research)

And Altria remains one of the best high-yield blue chips you can buy today if you're comfortable with the risk profile – which Dividend Kings tracks using things like:

  • 18 analysts

  • 6 rating agencies

  • 24 experts that collectively know MO better than anyone outside of management.

If the thesis for any company weakens, strengthens, or shatters… we’re going to know about it STAT. Our Phoenix strategy and Research Terminal cover every important fundamental that drives long-term success.

Automated Investment Decision Tool: The Easiest Way To Avoid Stupid And Costly Investing Mistakes 

I never recommend a company, much less put my own money at risk, without first knowing exactly how prudent a potential investment it is relative to the S&P 500 (most people's default alternative).

The idea isn't to be brilliant, only to always be reasonable and prudent. I’m just looking to match Charlie Munger's "consistently not stupid" decision-making goal.


Quality Score

Safety Score

Investment Grade

Today's 5+ Year Risk-Adjusted Expected Return












Strong buy

Its 24.60% discount to fair value earns it a 4/4 score

Preservation of capital


Above average

Its BBB+ credit rating implies a 5% chance of bankruptcy risk, earning it a 6/7 score

Return of capital



Its 33.64% vs. the S&P's 9.65% 5-year potential for return via dividends earns it a 10/10 score

Return on capital



Its 8.39% vs. the S&P's 2% 5-year risk-adjusted expected return earns it a 10/10 score

Total score


Max score of 31

S&P's score

Investment score



73/100 = C (Market Average)

Investment letter grade


(Source: Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool)

ABBV is one of the most reasonable and prudent high-yield aristocrat investments you can buy today. It offers:

  • 3.2x the market's yield

  • A much safer dividend (confirmed by a 10% hike in the pandemic while the S&P 500 cut 1%)

  • 4.2x the market's risk-adjusted expected returns for the next five years

  • Long-term return potential of 13.8% versus the long-term consensus forecasts of 7.8% for the S&P 500 and 10.8% for dividend aristocrats.

This is just one example of a recent recommendation from our Daily Blue-Chip Deal Video series.

We've made 253 such videos since June 2020. And our average investment decision score is 96% A excellent on blue-chips, with quality and safety equal to the dividend aristocrats…

Just with far superior yields, faster growth, and with each one bought at fair value or better.

Our Phoenix strategy has achieved a 93% success rate recommending and buying 115 blue chips so far.

  • 8 are down, with the biggest loser being -11%.

  • 13 (11%) are up over 100%.

  • The biggest winner has almost tripled.

Our goal is to achieve a 60%-80% success rate over the long term, matching the success rates of the greatest investors in history. Being right about 70% of the time has made these legends billionaires.

Following the same principles, our portfolios have been killing it as well.

(Source: Sharesight)

Our newest real-money Phoenix portfolio is Phoenix ESG. And so far, it’s been our most successful one yet.

(Source: Morningstar)

While nine weeks isn't statistically significant, our fundamentally justified luck has seen 12.6% returns at this point.

Compare that to the S&P’s 7.9% and 1.8% for TGPEX, T. Rowe's global ESG fund, and our benchmark for this portfolio.

We're beating our benchmark by 7x due to fundamentally justified short-term luck. We expect to keep beating it over time, due to superior fundamentals.

(Source: Morningstar)

DK Phoenix ESG combines superior:

  • Size (smaller than S&P 500)

  • Valuation (fairly valued per Morningstar's estimate)

  • Quality (higher profitability)

  • Yield (more than 2x the S&P 500)

  • Growth (12.2% versus 8.9% for aristocrats and 6.4% for the S&P 500).

And it stacks the deck with five alpha factors.

If these companies grow as Morningstar expects, then this portfolio will deliver about 15.3% total returns over time.

That’s something that the S&P 500, dividend aristocrats, Nasdaq, and 99% of funds can't hope to match.

The 30% historical margin of error for the Gordon Dividend Growth Model means that 10%-21% annual total returns are likely from this portfolio.

Even 11% annual returns over time will outperform 95% of all mutual funds on earth. And it will likely beat TGPEX too.

For the record, Morningstar rates T. Rowe as the #1 risk-adjusted active manager in America.

Hey, if you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.

For that matter, Wide Moat Research and all its services – Dividend Kings, iREIT on Alpha, Safe High Yield, and Intelligent Dividend Investor – are beating T. Rowe and just about everyone else.

(Source: Sharesight)

Brad Thomas at iREIT has delivered 27% annual returns for six years now. That doesn’t just triple REIT returns, it also beats the Nasdaq's 24% CAGR “tech bubble 2.0” induced returns.

And with “slow-growing,” blue-chip REITs.

In total, Wide Moat portfolios are 13/13 in beating their benchmarks.

THAT is the power of disciplined financial science from the best analysts, the best tools, and the best strategy that includes every fundamental that matters for any given goal, risk profile, or investing strategy.

Whatever you need, something great is always on sale. We help you find the best companies at the best prices to take charge of your financial destiny.

That's why we have 112 5-star reviews from our very satisfied members.

2020 was a year of drama, we know. And the one certainty in this world is uncertainty. Moreover, the coming years will see lots of scary headlines and numerous market downturns.

But those are exactly what will provide prudent long-term investors with incredible opportunities to maximize long-term income and achieve a rich retirement.

And Dividend Kings will be there regardless to help take the mystery out of Wall Street. Like I said earlier when you focus on safety and quality first, and prudent valuation and sound risk management always…

You never have to pray for luck on Wall Street, because you'll make your own luck. 

Membership also includes:

  • Access to our 5 model portfolios

  • Daily Phoenix Portfolio Buys

  • 50 exclusive articles per month

  • 50% discount to iREIT (our REIT-focused sister service)

  • Real-time chatroom support

  • Exclusive daily updates to all my retirement portfolio trades

  • Numerous valuable investing tools.

Click here for a two-week free trial so we can help you achieve better long-term total returns and your financial dreams.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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