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EUR/USD: Trading The US CB Consumer Confidence

US CB Consumer Confidence is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 U.S. households regarding their opinion of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to its release, which always has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 15:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

CB Consumer Confidence is an important gauge of consumer confidence. Increased consumer confidence usually translates into an increase in consumer spending, a key engine of economic growth.

The indicator surged in November to 107.1 point, well above the estimate of 101.3 points. The upward trend is expected to continue in December, with an estimate of 108.9 points.

Sentiments and levels

The week of Christmas is usually quiet and marked by thin trading. The trend remains to the downside: monetary policy divergence is starker than beforehand. However, the next move could wait for 2017. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.0570, 1.0520, 1.0460, 1.0340 and 1.0150.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 106.0 to 112.0: In such a case, EUR/USD is likely to remain within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 112.1 to 116.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair below one support level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 116.0: A sharp increase in consumer confidence could boost the dollar and send the pair below a second support level.
  4. Below expectations: 102.0 to 105.9: A reading lower than forecast could push EUR/USD above one resistance level.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 101.9: In this outcome, the pair could break above a second resistance level.