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Weekly Macro Themes - 18 May 2018

|Includes: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), GLD, SLV, VWO
Summary

China slowdown and EM tactical risk update.

Gold outlook and silver strategy.

Governance risk and government bond yields.

Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.

1. China Slowdown Scenario: Given tighter policy settings, slowing property price gains, and export headwinds, the China slowdown scenario remains the base case this year.

2. EM – Tactically Cautious: A number of our proprietary indicators are lighting up for emerging markets.

***See the Weekly Best Idea for coverage of this topic...

3. Gold at risk: Gold may not be giving investors what they bargained for, as a number of hidden risks and headwinds are front of mind for us on the gold charts.

4. Long Silver: There is an entirely different setup for silver vs gold. See the key charts, indicators, and thinking behind this thesis.

5. Governance Risk and Bond Yields: We apply our composite governance rankings to global government bond markets and see how a governance risk premium can be derived.

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About the Weekly Macro Themes report

The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.