Weekly Macro Themes - 25 May 2018
Macro, Portfolio Strategy, Research Analyst
Contributor Since 2016
Topdown Charts is an independent research firm covering global asset allocation and economics - bringing a chart-driven, top-down approach to investors.
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Summary
- This week we take a close look at the PE10 valuation ratio and how it can predict future returns. We also examine the idea of earnings rollout.
- In addition to that we take a look at some of the trends in long term corporate earnings growth expectations.
Here's a brief preview of the topics and charts covered in the latest edition of the Weekly Macro Themes report.
1. Growth Wobbles: First topic looks at some of the growth wobbles starting to appear - see what charts and indicators we're watching and why.
2. Long Term Growth Estimates: Median long term growth estimates across global equities have fallen in recent months, but the story is not universal across countries.
3. Global Risk Breadth: We introduce the new global risk breadth indicator - an innovative approach to gauging the global risk pricing landscape - and what it's telling us right now.
4. PE10 Rollout: In this topic we examine how the GFC impacted on the PE10 valuation ratio, and how these distortions will play out in the next couple of years.
***This topic was featured in the Weekly Best Idea report
5. PE10 and 10: Taking a further look at the PE10, we examine the rule of thumb for estimating future expected long run returns, and apply this across countries and regions.
***This topic was also featured in the Weekly Best Idea report
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About the Weekly Macro Themes report
The "Weekly Macro Themes" is our institutional offering aimed at multi-asset and macro-driven portfolio managers and strategists. The report takes a chart-driven macro, fundamental and multi-factor approach; a powerful combination of cross-asset idea generation for portfolio managers, charts on key global macro trends, analysis on portfolio risks, asset allocation research, and innovative indicators, in a format that delivers a balance of brevity and depth so that you can efficiently assimilate the insights. Also part of the service is the monthly Chartbook which contains the key charts and views across asset classes with a tactical/dynamic positioning model.