Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

Upcoming Aytu Q2, 2021 ER Preview

Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Deep Value

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2016

Employing innovative fundamental practices featuring thorough quantitative and qualitative analysis to identify high-value investments.

Aytu BioScience Q2 ER PreviewSource: Author's Research

The image above contains my very conservative projections for Aytu's upcoming Q2, 2021 ER results. I assumed a 12% quarterly growth rate for Consumer Health based on the good work Bassam has been doing in the previous quarters building that portfolio. I assumed a 10% growth rate in the Rx based on very poor results in Q1 that should be turned around with more focus from Acerus on Natesto and the sale teams working harder amidst the Neos merger pressures. I maintained a 70% margin on COGS and a roughly $11M expense run rate that the CFO indicated in Q4 was likely to represent steady-state levels.

The weighted average # of shares I employed to determine EPS was 72 days at 129M and 20 days at 17.87M to come out with roughly 104M to calculate against. The result is a -$0.04 EPS, same as Q1, which isn't too bad amidst the Covid restrictions and likely distractions from closing the Neos deal. It wouldn't be too hard to do better than these estimates though. Some potential positive surprises could be from the antigen tests and Natesto.

The numbers look reasonable, pass the "smell test" and give me confidence the not-yet-announced ER won't be a gong-show. It also supports management's narrative in the merger PR of a "path to profitability". We'll get a better sense of Natesto sales results if Acerus announces their earnings first, since Aytu records the total then compensates Acerus with a performance bonus based on the numbers.

All feedback is welcomed.

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long AYTU.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.