Upcoming Aytu Q2, 2021 ER Preview
Deep Value
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2016
The image above contains my very conservative projections for Aytu's upcoming Q2, 2021 ER results. I assumed a 12% quarterly growth rate for Consumer Health based on the good work Bassam has been doing in the previous quarters building that portfolio. I assumed a 10% growth rate in the Rx based on very poor results in Q1 that should be turned around with more focus from Acerus on Natesto and the sale teams working harder amidst the Neos merger pressures. I maintained a 70% margin on COGS and a roughly $11M expense run rate that the CFO indicated in Q4 was likely to represent steady-state levels.
The weighted average # of shares I employed to determine EPS was 72 days at 129M and 20 days at 17.87M to come out with roughly 104M to calculate against. The result is a -$0.04 EPS, same as Q1, which isn't too bad amidst the Covid restrictions and likely distractions from closing the Neos deal. It wouldn't be too hard to do better than these estimates though. Some potential positive surprises could be from the antigen tests and Natesto.
The numbers look reasonable, pass the "smell test" and give me confidence the not-yet-announced ER won't be a gong-show. It also supports management's narrative in the merger PR of a "path to profitability". We'll get a better sense of Natesto sales results if Acerus announces their earnings first, since Aytu records the total then compensates Acerus with a performance bonus based on the numbers.
All feedback is welcomed.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long AYTU.
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