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Based On Real GDP, US Economy Peaked This Summer

According to e-forecasting's Preliminary Estimate of U.S. Monthly GDP, the nation's output of goods and services rose in October.

Following an increase of 1.0 percent in September, the real-time monthly GDP, expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates in chained 2009 prices, increased 0.8 percent in October to $16,727.8 billion.

Looking at the annual growth rate of monthly GDP's three-month moving average from three months ago, the economy's output in October increased by 2.1 percent. This growth rate is the monthly equivalent to the publicized GDP quarterly growth rate from the preceding quarter. In reality, the growth rate of the three months ending in the last month of the quarter is identical to the quarterly growth rate.

The six-month smoothed annual growth rate of the U.S monthly real GDP, which historically has signaled the recession phases of the business cycle, recorded a positive reading of 1.7 percent in October, after posting a positive growth rate of 1.8 percent in September. This compares to a long-term annual average growth rate of 3.3 percent during 1959-2012.

On a year-over-year basis, real monthly GDP rose by 1.4 percent in October 2016 from the same month of last year. This follows an increase of 1.4 percent in September.

Recent Growth in US Monthly GDP by