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[Offer Expires In 9 Days] + Weekend Update

I just posted a new [Weekend Dashboard] report to members of EPB Macro Research

The [Weekend Dashboard] report is one of three regular updates that members of EPB Macro Research receive on a weekly basis. 

The [Weekend Dashboard] report is a standardized update that contains commentary on the markets over the past one week, updates to interest rate changes and bond spreads, updates to weekly loan growth data as well any key themes I want to highlight. 

This week I pointed out the unusual trend in tax receipt growth during what is supposed to be a robust economy. Here is an excerpt from that report: 

One last chart I want to highlight this week is the growth rate in total federal tax receipts. This chart is one more data point that confirms that growth in the economy has not been robust and is still quite weak. All of this data comes prior to the change in tax law so that has no impact. 

Federal Tax Receipts: Total Year over Year Growth:

Source: BEA, EPB Macro Research

Tax receipt growth is supposed to increase during economic expansions and decline as the economy weakens. Intuitively this makes sense; if the economy grows, more money is earned and tax revenue increases. Tax revenue growth has been falling for this entire economic cycle and is near the cycle lows as of this past quarter. Tax receipt growth was negative in 2016 which is historically indicative of a recession. 

Federal Tax Receipts: Total Year over Year Growth:

Source: BEA, EPB Macro Research

More data is converging towards the view of growth slowing. The market will begin to price this in over the next couple of quarters should these trends continue. 


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