TBPH July data for wholly owned TD-9855 (norepinephrine serotonin reuptake inhibitor (NSRI))in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension (nOH) (mainly Parkinson's patients) seems to be medium risk since company reported positive results in the Q3 2017 earnings call that led to this extension arm. TBPH reported that "after seeing encouraging responses in the majority of patients involved in the single ascending dose portion of the study, we moved into an open-label extension study to assess the durability of the effect in treating nOH patients." See slide below from TBPH Q3 2017 earnings call. However, detailed results and durability data have not been presented before to our knowledge.
Stock price didn't move on Q3 2017 earnings call report. Maybe if extension study is positive market will react positively because differentiates over current therapies, which appear to be problematic with low durability and/or difficult resting blood pressure side effect. nOH market is a $1-2B market from our rough estimates.
TBPH is a complex company with licensed assets on market for respiratory disease and recently did deal with Janssen for Jak inhibitors TBPH developed for GI diseases. New respiratory product about to hit market - not certain if wholly owned or licensed. Amp has not researched other assets yet.
Disclosure: I am/we are long TBPH.
Additional disclosure: This comment is not investment advice.