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Gold for Bears: Time to short to $430

|Includes: GLD, Randgold Resources Limited (GOLD)

It has been a long time since my last gold analysis.
I believe at this time we already had seen the top. But I have to change the timing and the target. So now it is $430 by Aug 2012. This doesn't ryme with the Euro reaching 0.80 by Feb 2012 but charts point to this numbers. (probably shorting the Euro and adding profits to gold later would be the best strategy)

There are no clear channels on gold, would it be daily, weekly or monthly, so I am basing the analisys mostly on the candlesticks and resistance levels. The channels drawn on charts are just guesses.

Daily chart

I believe we are at resistance level, though it is not a clear one (the red line). Candlesticks for last week indicate a top. The move looks like an impulsive down with retracement ended on tuesday-wednessday. Note that the green range is the trading range and the red line is the mid point, where I expect the reversal to happen.

This is the weekly, to show the top

And this is the monthly

The september's candle is a "Bearish Engulfing Pattern" , October is a "nothing" canlde being an inside month. Now, here in Novermber the market is playing the uptrend continuation move, however we have strong downtrend on the Euro and a very good top in september, I am betting on the quick reversal and the close of November below 1600. If we achieve that, December should be down and this would be confirmation of monthly downtrend, such when started, will most likely end at the channel line pointing at $430. To reach that target it is possible only after 10 months, this is why I have to call $430 by August 2012. $500 is a very strong support level, so no month should close below that. The red candles are drawn only schematic, since to achieve $430 bottom gold has to drop $130 bucks every month, of course this will never happen in real life. I am expecting some trading range between $800 and $1000