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USD: Can the dollar close 2011 at 92 ?

|Includes: ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF (USD)

This is an analysis of USD yearly candles, that shows that USD should close at 92 by the end of December 2011 to keep yearly candles in bullish state.

Lets see how yearly candles look like:

usd yearly candlesticks
Now, lets first analyze full candles, when I say "full candle" I mean: high-low (not close-open)

yearly candles usd

We begin with a downtrend in 2003 and 2004, then pause for a year (2005). 2006 is a continuation of the trend but it is not confirmed until it breaks lower, this happens in 2007. I have shown this first contraction, it can be thought as a triangle continuation pattern if you wish. 2008 looks like an outside reversal candle, but to confirm the reversal we must have a strong up candle immediately. But we don't. Instead we have a higher high candle and then contraction. What does this mean? Nobody knows until we see the next candle. Next candle is nothing, an inside candle. Finally the 2011 candle comes and what does it do? Goes down. The trend is bearish, dollar is collapsing. Uuuups!
If you know the basics of candlestick analysis you should be familliar what is an outside candle, inside candle and that if a following candle is shifted up or down you have a trend. This means, technically (according to candlestick rules) from 2008 to 2010 we had an uptrend. However in 2011 we have made a lower low than the candle of 2009. The trend has changed to the down side. But how do you fix the chart to make it technically correct after breaking the trend? The answer is to make an outside candle for 2011 too, just like it did in 2008. We already have a lower low, now we have to make a higher high, and to achieve this we have to touch 92 level on the chart and stay around that level until the year closes.
This is basically what still can happen in the month and a half that are left until 31 of December

Now lets see the same chart , but only the candle bodies
usd yearly candle bodies
We can see different patterns here. There are same 2 triangle continuation patterns but this chart looks more bullish for the dollar, than the previous. Because we can see how downside has considerably dimisnished.

That said, you have to watch for a full market move with little retracements, it is calculated as around 2500 pips on EUR/USD pair