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Gold for Bears: Long term update (2011)

May 08, 2011 1:15 PM ET6 Comments
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ker.nulov's Blog
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Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2009

FOREX & FUTURES day & swing trader.

This is an update of my original call for Bear Market in Gold

As you know I called for gold crash a month ago just at the middle of the channel.
Market, however overshoot it 100 bucks more. The crash appears to be in progress now, but my prediction for the size and type of the move has changed. I am back to the original prediction of head and shoulders top.

Basically, gold will be an anti-dollar trade, for whatever pips the dollar goes up, gold will go down, and as you can see here I am projecting a spectacular move up in the dollar. We can see a sort of left shoulder on gold's chart, so the whole move looks to me is going to be  be a type of head & shoulders top, but with an inclination, due to extreme bearishness.


I updated the channel lines slightly moving them. This is how it would look like:

gold yearly channels

Now, lets see the monthly charts.
Gold: Monthly channels

We have 2 channels here, black and blue and you can see that one of them was
overstepped (blue) and the other one wasn't fully completed (black). However we have got the top on the weekly, so market reversed.
Hitting 400 by early 2012 would be an ideal bottom, but I am not calling 400, I am
calling 500. Because there is a strong support at 500 line. Also we never had a close at 500 level, so this is the time market might do it and this should be the end of the move, somewhere around Jan/Feb of 2012

The pink line is how I project the trading. Basically we have to break below 1080 quickly and then do a consolidation below this resistance in a form of a trading range, with following next leg of downside to 500. Then we would have a correction with a following capitulation bottom between 320 and 400 in 2014

To confirm this move gold has to break below 1400.

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