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All My Tesla Predictions

|Includes: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Note (June 15, 2018): I haven’t kept this list updated. I still think it’s a worthy effort, it’s just hard to find the time. 

Prediction

Developments

May 15, 2017: “Upcoming software updates that will add advanced driver assistance features to the Model X combined with free publicity from the launch of the Model 3 sedan in July should lead to increased Model X demand in Q4.” (source)

August 2, 2017: “Orders for Model S and Model X have also been increasing, both leading up to and following the Model 3 handover event. In July, our weekly net order rate for these vehicles was about 15% higher than our Q2 average weekly order rate. In addition, although too early to draw strong conclusions, we are seeing an even further increase in net Model S orders since the July 28th event. This growing demand gives us even more reason to expect increased deliveries of Model S and Model X in the second half of this year.” (source)

May 22, 2017: “I don’t know exactly how many Tesla customers will receive a Model 3 this year. However, I feel pretty confident that it will be a lot more than 2,000, as Morgan Stanley is predicting, or 2,025, as Goldman Sachs is predicting. I predict that Model 3 deliveries will exceed these Wall Street forecasts by at least 10 times.” (source)

Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs were right. I was wrong. Cumulative Model 3 deliveries for 2017 were 1,770.

August 3, 2017: “If Tesla offers full self-driving to customers well before any competitors, demand for the Model S and X will be asymptotic. A car that is 10x safer, 5-10x cheaper when accounting for autonomous ride-hailing revenue, and immeasurably more convenient than anything else on the market will truly have no competition. I anticipate this could indeed happen in 2020, give or take a year.” (source)

TBD

July 18, 2017: “I believe that Tesla will launch a Tesla Network for freight like its planned Tesla Network for passengers. I anticipate that this service, which I call the Tesla Freight Network, will probably launch sometime in the early 2020s.” (source)

TBD

Disclosure: I am/we are long TSLA.