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Dow Futures Elliott Wave View 8.18.2017

|Includes: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPY

Summary

Dow futures (YM_F) ended the cycle from February 11,2016 cycle at 8/08 (22177) peak, below from there showing impulse sequence favoring more downside

Short term Dow Futures (YM_F) Elliott wave view suggest that the rally to 8/08 peak 22177 ended the “Cycle” from Feb 11, 2016 low. The decline from there is unfolding as an impulse suggesting the index could be following a Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern in larger degree correction. From there Intermediate wave (1) ended at 21789 in 5 waves at 21789 low and bounce from there ended in 3 swings at 22070 peak as another zigzag pattern within intermediate wave (2).

The decline from there is unfolding as an impulse Elliott wave structure within intermediate wave (3). Below from 21789 peak, Minor wave 1 ended at 21993, Minor wave 2 ended at 22034 peak. Below from there Minute wave ((I)) ended at 21885, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 21950, Minute wave ((III)) ended at 21705 low and above from there doing a Minute wave ((iv)) bounce. Which is expected to unfold in 3 swings and shouldn’t pass the 0.382% fibonacci retracement area 21798 of Minute wave ((III)) for the idea to remain alive for further downside in Minute wave ((V)) of 3 lower initially. We don’t like selling the pullback and expect further downside extension as far as pivot from 22070 peak & more importantly from 22177 peak remains intact to continue correction lower.

Dow Futures 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

According to Elliott wave theory, the zigzag is a 3-wave structure that has an internal subdivision of (5-3-5) oscillation sequence. The internal oscillations are labeled A, B, C where A = 5 waves, B = 3 waves and C = 5 waves. This means that A and C can be impulsive or diagonal waves. The A and C waves must meet all the conditions of wave structure 5, such as: having an RSI divergence between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions, ideal retracts, etc. In the graph below, we can see how the Zig Zag structure of Elliott Wave looks. 5 waves down in A, 3 waves in B and 5 waves down in C.