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USDJPY Elliott Wave View: Ending Bounce

|Includes: Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY)
Summary

USDJPY near term cycle from 7/11 peak is showing 5 swings bearish sequence suggesting more downside in the pair as far as bounces fails below 110.95 peak

Short term USDJPY Elliott wave view suggest that the decline from 7/11 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Decline to 108.71 low ended Minor wave W and correction of that cycle ended in a Minor wave X at 110.95 peak. Subdivision of Minor wave Y is unfolding as a Zigzag structure. Minute wave ((W)) of ((Y) ended at 108.59 low and Minute wave ((X)) of (Y) bounce is in progress as another Zigzag structure.

Up from 108.59 wave ((W)) low, Minutte wave (A) of ((X)) ended at 109.6 peak and Minutte wave (B) of ((X)) pullback ended at 108.609. Above from there, Minutte wave (C) of ((X)) is in progress towards 109.67-109.92 or 100%-123.6% Fibonacci extension area of (A)-(B). Afterwards, pair should resume the decline or pullback in 3 swings at least. We don’t advise buying the pair into the bounce. Expect sellers to appear after Minute wave ((X)) bounce is complete in 3, 7 or 11 swings for  further downside, provided pivot at 110.95 peak stays intact.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart

Double Three is the most important pattern in Elliott wave’s new theory and probably the most common pattern in the market these days. Double three is also known as a 7-swing structure. It is a very reliable pattern that gives traders a good opportunity to trade with a well-defined level of risk and target areas. The image below shows what Elliott Wave Double Three looks like. It has labels (W), (X), (Y) and an internal structure of 3-3-3. This means that all 3 legs has corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) is formed by 3 wave oscillations and has a structure of A, B, C or W, X, Y of smaller degrees.