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Palladium Reaches 100% Fibonacci Extension Since 1996 Low

Palladium reached a high of $1249.40 today, it is already up 53% since August 2018 but has now reached 100% Fibonacci extension from the all time low. It has also reached 100% Fibonacci extension up from 2003 low which means we have now entered the area where cycle from 2003 and all time low can end. However, it's a big area and runs from $1239.49 - $1915.08 but still buyers need to be cautious of profit taking in the blue box which can produce a pull back, therefore, chasing longs at current level is risky.

Palladium Cycle from 1996 and 2003 low

PA_F Elliott Wave Analysis since 2016 low

Elliott Wave Analysis suggests, rally from 2016 low to 2018 high unfolded as an Elliott wave zig-zag structure which is a 5-3-5 structure and completed wave "w". This was followed by a pull back which took the form of a double three Elliott wave structure and ended at $819. Back in June 2018, we highlighted this pull back as a buying opportunity in Palladium , pull back did find buyers as expected and we have already seen a new high above January 2018 peak and now we are at 0.618 - 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of red "w" and "x" cycles. This is the area where typically 1st leg of "y" leg ends in a double three Elliott wave structure. Area between $1244 - $1344.20 is expected to end the cycle from August 2018 low, produce a pull back in Palladium and then result in more upside toward $1503 - $1664 area to 7 swings Elliott wave sequence from 2016 low. As we are already at 100% Fibonacci extension from 1996 and 2003 lows, it's risky chasing longs in the short-term and our strategy would be to wait for wave (X) pull back to take place. After wave (X) pull back has materialised, we expect buyers to appear again and take prices higher toward $1503 - $1664 area.