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The BEL20 Index Longer Term Swings And Cycles

Jul. 27, 2020 12:07 PM ETEuronext BEL 20 Index (BEL20)
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The BEL20 Index Longer Term Swings and Cycles

Firstly the BEL20 Index has trended higher with other world indices since the benchmark was established. The index remained in a long term bullish trend cycle into the May 2007 highs. From there it made a sharp correction lower that lasted until March 2009 similar to other world indices. That is where the index corrected the whole long term bullish cycle from the all time lows. At this point is where this bullish trend, cycle and swing analysis begins. The analysis continues below the monthly chart.

BEL20 Monthly Chart

Secondly, the 2009 lows corrected the whole longer term cycle higher from inception in the benchmark index. The bounce from the March 2009 lows into the January 2018 highs was a clear five swing impulse. The pullback lower from that high is strong enough to suggest it is correcting the whole cycle up from the March 2009 lows. This is determined by reading the RSI and other momentum indicators.

Thirdly, previously mentioned earlier, the pullback from the January 2018 high to the December 2018 lows was strong enough to suggest it is correcting the cycle up from the March 2009 lows. At this point the index could have possibly completed a corrective sequence against the uptrend however some related instruments suggested an otherwise deeper pullback. It did the next swing lower into the March 2020 lows but only after another high was seen into the February 2020 highs.

In conclusion, this expanded flat is a typical and common Elliott Wave corrective structure. Previously mentioned earlier, this is corrected the cycle from the 2009 low. At this point in time from the March 2020 lows it appears the index has five waves up. Afterward of a pullback to correct the cycle from the March 2020 lows it can resume the longer term bullish trend higher.

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