Don't Panic! Follow Trends - Systematically!

Mar. 09, 2020 8:40 AM ET
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Contributor Since 2017

Author of #1 rated book on commodities "Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading" and contributing editor at ZeroHedge. I am the creator of I-System Trend Following (ISystem-TF.com) and publisher of I-System TrendCompass daily reports. I've worked as a market analyst, researcher, trader and hedge fund manager since 1996. Over that time I've outperformed the DowJones Credit Suiss Blue Chip index of Managed Futures funds (2007-2013, audited) and the EurekaHedge tail risk index (2012-2019). I can be reached at xela.reniark@gmail.com or akrainer@monaco.mc

Summary

  • Going forward, market imbalances could result in very severe price dislocations in commodities and financial markets.
  • The most reliable way to ride out the storm is through systematic trend following. Keep calm and follow market trends!
  • Net directional exposure based on 493 I-System strategies is very favorable in equity markets, oil and treasury futures.

For months here I've been posting articles about the "Perfect Storm Gathering" in the markets suggesting that we'd experience very drastic price dislocations in financial and commodity markets. Last June I published an article titled "Trend Following Might Save Your Tail"

In view of last three weeks' market tremors and particularly today's open in oil, treasuries and commodities here's the directional exposure of the 493 I-System trend following strategies i track across 39 financial and commodity futures markets:

I-System directional exposure on market open 9 March 2020Exposure is expressed as a percentage of maximum allowed position limit. Apart for the still long exposure on S&P500 futures, other market exposure is bang on. So to ride out the storm intact - or even come out ahead of the game -  just keep calm and follow trends. If you wish to receive daily I-System TrendCompass reports please contact me at xela.reniark@gmail.com.

Alex Krainer is a commodities trader and author based in Monaco. He wrote the book “Mastering Uncertainty in Commodities Trading.”

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